luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · April 1, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canucks at Avalanche, Apr 1, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Canucks beat the Avalanche 8–6, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canucks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 63 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The biggest swing (P3, 6:02 left): Sam Malinski scored on a wrist shot from 44 feet, worth 36 points of win probability to the Avalanche.

Final

Vancouver Canucks 8
Colorado Avalanche 6

April 1, 2026 · Ball Arena

Luck index +53 Canucks lucky · −53 Avalanche

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canucks win 5, Avalanche win 5.

  1. 1 VAN 5 COL 1
  2. 2 VAN 4 COL 1
  3. 3 VAN 4 COL 2
  4. 4 VAN 2 COL 1
  5. 5 VAN 4 COL 3
  6. 6 VAN 1 COL 2
  7. 7 VAN 2 COL 3
  8. 8 VAN 2 COL 4
  9. 9 VAN 1 COL 4
  10. 10 VAN 1 COL 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Canucks win 47% of them, Avalanche 53%. The line is what actually happened: Canucks by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canucks by 3+18.9%
Canucks by 29.0%
Canucks by 119.4%
Avalanche by 122.1%
Avalanche by 210.3%
Avalanche by 3+20.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Canucks by 2, without the luck Canucks by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canucks4172.66+4.34
Avalanche4663.05+2.95

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:19 Slashing on the Canucks (Jake DeBrusk): 2 minutes on the power play +4% COL
P1 8:36 Tripping on the Avalanche (Gabriel Landeskog): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P1 0:27 Holding on the Avalanche (Artturi Lehkonen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 9:27 Slashing on the Canucks (Linus Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +1% COL
P2 4:17 Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Canucks (VAN): 2 minutes on the power play +1% COL
P3 5:03 High sticking on the Avalanche (Gabriel Landeskog): 2 minutes on the power play +6% VAN

When it happened

Avalanche’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Avalanche were ahead in it, below while the Canucks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:31 Max Sasson scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% VAN –
2 P1 18:38 Nathan MacKinnon scored on a wrist shot from 44 feetShooting · 4% chance +15% COL –
3 P1 14:39 Teddy Blueger scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% VAN –
4 P1 8:22 Jake DeBrusk scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 12% chance +13% VAN –
5 P1 3:55 Gabriel Landeskog scored on a tip from 24 feetShooting · 4% chance +15% COL –
6 P2 14:58 Teddy Blueger scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% VAN –
7 P3 6:02 Sam Malinski scored on a wrist shot from 44 feetShooting · 3% chance +36% COL –
8 P3 5:39 Marcus Pettersson scored on a slap shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance +35% VAN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canucks 57% · Avalanche 43%

Final margin
Canucks by 2
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Canucks by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Canucks 47% · Avalanche 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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