2025-26 regular season · March 31, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Kraken at Oilers, Mar 31, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Oilers beat the Kraken 3–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Oilers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Oilers.
The biggest swing (P1, 14:32 left): Max Jones scored on a deflected shot from 10 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Oilers.
Final
 Seattle Kraken | 0 |
|---|---|
 Edmonton Oilers | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 Oilers lucky · −50 Kraken
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kraken win 5, Oilers win 5.
- 1 SEA 4 EDM 1
- 2 SEA 4 EDM 1
- 3 SEA 2 EDM 0
- 4 SEA 2 EDM 1
- 5 SEA 2 EDM 1
- 6 SEA 3 EDM 4
- 7 SEA 1 EDM 2
- 8 SEA 1 EDM 3
- 9 SEA 1 EDM 3
- 10 SEA 0 EDM 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Kraken win 50% of them, Oilers 50%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kraken by 3+ | 17.2% |
| Kraken by 2 | 10.6% |
| Kraken by 1 | 22.0% |
| Oilers by 1 | 23.9% |
| Oilers by 2 | 10.9% |
| Oilers by 3+ | 15.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraken | 43 | 0 | 2.39 | −2.39 |
 Oilers | 37 | 2 | 2.20 | −0.20 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 1:58 | Holding on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% EDM |
| P2 14:17 | Interference on the Oilers (Mattias Ekholm): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% SEA |
| P2 2:05 | Interference on the Oilers (Connor McDavid): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% SEA |
| P3 7:36 | Hooking on the Oilers (Zach Hyman): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% SEA |
When it happened
Oilers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:32 | Max Jones scored on a deflected shot from 10 feetShooting · 9% chance | +15% EDM | – |
| 2 | P1 7:37 | Kaapo Kakko missed the net with a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 11% chance | +2% EDM | – |
| 3 | P1 7:17 | Kasperi Kapanen scored on a wrist shot from 35 feetShooting · 5% chance | +13% EDM | – |
| 4 | P1 1:58 | Holding on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% EDM | – |
| 5 | P2 15:25 | Ben Meyers’s snap shot from 19 feet was savedShooting · 18% chance | +3% EDM | – |
| 6 | P2 14:17 | Interference on the Oilers (Mattias Ekholm): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% SEA | – |
| 7 | P2 9:00 | Jordan Eberle snap, 24 ft: above crossbar (13% chance)Shooting | +2% EDM | – |
| 8 | P2 2:05 | Interference on the Oilers (Connor McDavid): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +2% SEA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kraken 28% · Oilers 72%
- Final margin
- Oilers by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for the Oilers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oilers by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Kraken 50% · Oilers 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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