2025-26 regular season · April 2, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Maple Leafs at Sharks, Apr 2, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Sharks beat the Maple Leafs 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sharks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 16 points of win probability to the Sharks.
The biggest swing (P1, 16:33 left): Zack Ostapchuk scored on a wrist shot from 40 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Sharks.
Final
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 |
|---|---|
 San Jose Sharks | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Sharks lucky · −45 Maple Leafs
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 4, Sharks win 6.
- 1 TOR 5 SJS 2
- 2 TOR 3 SJS 1
- 3 TOR 3 SJS 2
- 4 TOR 2 SJS 1
- 5 TOR 2 SJS 3
- 6 TOR 1 SJS 2
- 7 TOR 2 SJS 3
- 8 TOR 2 SJS 4
- 9 TOR 0 SJS 3
- 10 TOR 2 SJS 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maple Leafs win 45% of them, Sharks 55%. The line is what actually happened: Sharks by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maple Leafs by 3+ | 11.1% |
| Maple Leafs by 2 | 10.1% |
| Maple Leafs by 1 | 23.6% |
| Sharks by 1 | 24.6% |
| Sharks by 2 | 10.9% |
| Sharks by 3+ | 19.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maple Leafs | 38 | 1 | 2.26 | −1.26 |
 Sharks | 40 | 3 | 2.24 | +0.76 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 14:25 | Interference on the Sharks (Michael Misa): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% TOR |
| P2 12:37 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Dakota Joshua): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% SJS |
| P3 17:57 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Dakota Joshua): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% SJS |
When it happened
Sharks’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 16:33 | Zack Ostapchuk scored on a wrist shot from 40 feetShooting · 2% chance | +15% SJS | – |
| 2 | P1 2:17 | Collin Graf scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 7% chance | +13% SJS | – |
| 3 | P2 18:18 | William Eklund scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 7% chance | +8% SJS | – |
| 4 | P2 13:17 | John Tavares scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 12% chance | +7% TOR | – |
| 5 | P2 12:37 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Dakota Joshua): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% SJS | – |
| 6 | P2 1:01 | John Tavares missed the net with a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 15% chance | +2% SJS | – |
| 7 | P3 17:57 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Dakota Joshua): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +2% SJS | – |
| 8 | P3 17:04 | Matthew Knies’s wrist shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +2% SJS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maple Leafs 19% · Sharks 81%
- Final margin
- Sharks by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for the Sharks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sharks by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Maple Leafs 45% · Sharks 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 26, 2025-26
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