2025-26 regular season · April 4, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Flames at Ducks, Apr 4, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Flames beat the Ducks 5–3, but the replays lean toward the Ducks: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Flames.
The biggest swing (P2, 18:40 left): Ryan Strome scored on a snap shot from 18 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Flames.
Final
 Calgary Flames | 5 |
|---|---|
 Anaheim Ducks | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +66 Flames very lucky · −66 Ducks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Flames win 3, Ducks win 7.
- 1 CGY 6 ANA 3
- 2 CGY 5 ANA 4
- 3 CGY 3 ANA 2
- 4 CGY 5 ANA 6
- 5 CGY 0 ANA 1
- 6 CGY 4 ANA 6
- 7 CGY 1 ANA 4
- 8 CGY 1 ANA 4
- 9 CGY 1 ANA 5
- 10 CGY 4 ANA 9
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Flames win 34% of them, Ducks 66%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Flames by 3+ | 8.7% |
| Flames by 2 | 7.4% |
| Flames by 1 | 18.0% |
| Ducks by 1 | 18.9% |
| Ducks by 2 | 11.4% |
| Ducks by 3+ | 35.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Flames | 32 | 4 | 2.40 | +1.60 |
 Ducks | 64 | 3 | 3.98 | −0.98 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 8:20 | Hooking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CGY |
| P2 3:33 | Slashing on the Flames (Zach Whitecloud): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% ANA |
| P3 11:06 | Holding on the Flames (Morgan Frost): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% ANA |
| P3 5:06 | Hooking on the Flames (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% ANA |
When it happened
Ducks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 9:49 | Beckett Sennecke scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 17% chance | +14% ANA | – |
| 2 | P1 6:36 | Joel Farabee scored on a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% CGY | – |
| 3 | P2 18:40 | Ryan Strome scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 18% chance | +16% CGY | – |
| 4 | P2 12:11 | Matvei Gridin scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 12% chance | +14% CGY | – |
| 5 | P2 1:16 | Morgan Frost scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 14% chance | +6% CGY | – |
| 6 | P3 10:09 | Mason McTavish scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 8% chance | +13% ANA | – |
| 7 | P3 5:06 | Hooking on the Flames (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% ANA | – |
| 8 | P3 3:37 | Chris Kreider’s snap shot from 14 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +9% CGY | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Flames 69% · Ducks 31%
- Final margin
- Flames by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for the Flames
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Flames by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Flames 34% · Ducks 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 26, 2025-26
- Ducks at Sharks Apr 1, 2026 · SJS 4–3 · replay 42% for the winner
- Blues at Kings Apr 1, 2026 · LAK 2–1 OT · replay 44% for the winner
- Canucks at Avalanche Apr 1, 2026 · VAN 8–6 · replay 47% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Ducks Mar 30, 2026 · TOR 5–4 OT · replay 49% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Oilers Apr 4, 2026 · VGK 5–1 · replay 50% for the winner
- Kraken at Oilers Mar 31, 2026 · EDM 3–0 · replay 50% for the winner
- Predators at Sharks Apr 4, 2026 · NSH 6–3 · replay 53% for the winner
- Blues at Ducks Apr 3, 2026 · STL 6–2 · replay 54% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Sharks Apr 2, 2026 · SJS 4–1 · replay 55% for the winner
- Predators at Kings Apr 2, 2026 · NSH 5–4 SO · replay 57% for the winner
- Mammoth at Canucks Apr 4, 2026 · UTA 7–4 · replay 57% for the winner
- Blackhawks at Kraken Apr 4, 2026 · CHI 4–2 · replay 60% for the winner