Were the Maple Leafs lucky in 2025-26?

Yes: +6.6 points against what their play was worth, the 12th-luckiest of 32.

Where did the Maple Leafs’ luck come from?

Shooting +10.8 goals, Overtime −2.0 goals, Shootout −3.0 goals, Goaltending −7.5 goals.

Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs went 32–36–14 (78 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 71.4 points. Luck added 6.6: the 12th-luckiest of 32. PDO 1.005; 45.5% of the expected goals in their games.

Atlantic Division, 2025-26

#	Team	GP	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Without luck
1	Sabres	82	50–23–9	109	95.4	3rd
2	Lightning	82	50–26–6	106	105.1	1st
3	Canadiens	82	48–24–10	106	87.8	4th
4	Bruins	82	45–27–10	100	81.1	7th
5	Senators	82	44–27–11	99	99.7	2nd
6	Red Wings	82	41–31–10	92	84.8	6th
7	Panthers	82	40–38–4	84	85.3	5th
8	Maple Leafs	82	32–36–14	78	71.4	8th

Every division, adjusted for luck

Where the luck came from, 2025-26

Shooting +10.8

Overtime −2.0

Shootout −3.0

Goaltending −7.5

Goals of margin luck added (right) or cost (left) over the season, each kind at its fitted luck share; overtime and shootout wins count two.

Season by season

Season	Record	Pts	Coin-flip pts	Luck
2026-27	1–1–0	2	1.7	+0.3
2025-26	32–36–14	78	71.4	+6.6

Luckiest wins

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Mar 25, 2026	vs Rangers	W 4–3	29%	+71
Jan 17, 2026	@ Jets	W 4–3	33%	+67
Mar 15, 2026	@ Wild	W 4–2	33%	+67
Nov 26, 2025	@ Blue Jackets	W 2–1	34%	+66
Jan 12, 2026	@ Avalanche	W 4–3	34%	+66

Unluckiest losses

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Jan 29, 2026	@ Kraken	L 2–5	72%	−72
Jan 21, 2026	vs Red Wings	L 1–2	70%	−70
Oct 29, 2025	@ Blue Jackets	L 3–6	62%	−62
Oct 18, 2025	vs Kraken	L 3–4	62%	−62
Oct 13, 2025	vs Red Wings	L 2–3	62%	−62

Division rivals

Bruins · Sabres · Red Wings · Panthers · Canadiens · Senators · Lightning

Every NHL team · 2025-26 luck rankings · How the luck is measured