2026-27 season · in progress
Toronto Maple Leafs, 2026-27: game by game
The Maple Leafs are 1–1–0 (2 points) so far in 2026-27; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 1.7 points. Luck added 0.3: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 1–1; in overtime 0–0, in the shootout 0–0.
Every game
How often the Maple Leafs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Date | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs Canadiens | L 2–3 | 56% | −56 | |
| Sep 30, 2026 | vs Islanders | W 2–1 | 55% | +45 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck, with the win chance and the range of likely margins.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Maple Leafs win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · Oct 3 | vs Senators |  Senators by 0.3 | 44% |
| Week 2 · Oct 6 | vs Predators |  Maple Leafs by 0.2 | 53% |
| Week 2 · Oct 8 | at Golden Knights |  Golden Knights by 1.1 | 33% |
| Week 2 · Oct 10 | at Avalanche |  Avalanche by 1.2 | 31% |
| Week 3 · Oct 13 | at Mammoth |  Mammoth by 0.9 | 36% |
| Week 3 · Oct 15 | vs Sabres |  Sabres by 0.2 | 46% |
| Week 3 · Oct 17 | vs Islanders | Maple Leafs by 0.1 | 51% |
| Week 4 · Oct 19 | vs Sharks | Maple Leafs by 0.2 | 54% |
| Week 4 · Oct 20 | at Blue Jackets |  Blue Jackets by 0.7 | 38% |
| Week 4 · Oct 22 | vs Rangers |  Rangers by 0.1 | 48% |
| Week 4 · Oct 24 | at Oilers |  Oilers by 0.7 | 38% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Maple Leafs’ favor.
| Kind | Goals |
|---|---|
| Empty-net goals | +1.4 |
| Goaltending | +0.6 |
| Shooting | −1.0 |