luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 19, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Maple Leafs, Oct 19, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Maple Leafs beat the Sharks 3–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Maple Leafs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 43 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

The biggest swing (P3, 15:04 left): Gavin McKenna scored on a wrist shot from 12 feet, worth 24 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

Final

San Jose Sharks 1
Toronto Maple Leafs 3

October 19, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena

Our prediction before puck drop: Maple Leafs by 0.3

Luck index +46 Maple Leafs lucky · −46 Sharks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 5, Maple Leafs win 5.

  1. 1 SJS 7 TOR 3
  2. 2 SJS 4 TOR 1
  3. 3 SJS 5 TOR 3
  4. 4 SJS 3 TOR 2
  5. 5 SJS 3 TOR 2
  6. 6 SJS 3 TOR 4
  7. 7 SJS 4 TOR 5
  8. 8 SJS 2 TOR 4
  9. 9 SJS 3 TOR 6
  10. 10 SJS 2 TOR 7

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Maple Leafs by 0.3, 55% to win. The Maple Leafs won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 1.7 goals from ours; 49% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Sharks win45.0%
Maple Leafs win55.0%
Middle 50%: Sharks by 2 to Maple Leafs by 250%
Middle 90%: Sharks by 4 to Maple Leafs by 490%
Middle 95%: Sharks by 4 to Maple Leafs by 595%
Exactly Maple Leafs by 121.7%
Exactly Sharks by 119.3%
Exactly Maple Leafs by 313.3%
Exactly Maple Leafs by 210.4%
Exactly Sharks by 310.0%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Mon, Oct 19, 4:25 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Sharks win 45% of them, Maple Leafs 55%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+19.1%
Sharks by 28.8%
Sharks by 117.6%
Maple Leafs by 118.5%
Maple Leafs by 210.5%
Maple Leafs by 3+25.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Maple Leafs by 2, without the luck Maple Leafs by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks4713.45−2.45
Maple Leafs5523.93−1.93

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 12:42 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Zack MacEwen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P1 8:19 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Oliver Ekman-Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P1 4:35 Tripping on the Sharks (Jacob Trouba): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 3:37 Tripping on the Sharks (Dmitry Orlov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 15:44 Tripping on the Sharks (Will Smith): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 5:01 High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS
P2 0:19 Too many men on the ice on the Sharks (SJS): 2 minutes on the power play +5% TOR
P3 16:23 Cross checking on the Sharks (Luca Cagnoni): 2 minutes on the power play +6% TOR
P3 8:20 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SJS

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 6:06 Mason Marchment scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 11% chance +16% SJS –
2 P1 3:05 Kirill Marchenko’s snap shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance +5% SJS –
3 P2 0:19 Too many men on the ice on the Sharks (SJS): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% TOR –
4 P2 0:12 Auston Matthews scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 13% chance +22% TOR –
5 P3 16:23 Cross checking on the Sharks (Luca Cagnoni): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% TOR –
6 P3 15:04 Gavin McKenna scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 14% chance +24% TOR –
7 P3 8:20 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% SJS –
8 P3 3:24 Jacob Trouba missed the net with a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 13% chance +5% TOR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 31% · Maple Leafs 69%

Final margin
Maple Leafs by 2
Luck in goals
0.9 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 45% · Maple Leafs 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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