2026-27 regular season · October 22, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Mammoth at Kraken, Oct 22, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kraken beat the Mammoth 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kraken win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 42 points of win probability to the Kraken.
The biggest swing (P3, 5:25 left): Mackie Samoskevich scored on a wrist shot from 10 feet, worth 34 points of win probability to the Kraken.
Final
 Utah Mammoth | 3 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Kraken | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 Kraken lucky · −60 Mammoth
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Mammoth win 6, Kraken win 4.
- 1 UTA 5 SEA 0
- 2 UTA 5 SEA 2
- 3 UTA 4 SEA 1
- 4 UTA 3 SEA 1
- 5 UTA 1 SEA 0
- 6 UTA 2 SEA 1
- 7 UTA 2 SEA 3
- 8 UTA 2 SEA 3
- 9 UTA 2 SEA 4
- 10 UTA 0 SEA 3
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Mammoth by 0.2, 53% to win. The Kraken won by 2, a result we gave 47%. The final margin was 2.2 goals from ours; 39% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mammoth win | 53.3% |
| Kraken win | 46.7% |
| Middle 50%: Mammoth by 2 to Kraken by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Mammoth by 4 to Kraken by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Mammoth by 5 to Kraken by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 1 | 20.9% |
| Exactly Kraken by 1 | 20.2% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 3 | 12.6% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 2 | 10.8% |
| Exactly Kraken by 3 | 10.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 22, 8:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Mammoth win 60% of them, Kraken 40%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Mammoth by 3+ | 26.9% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 11.8% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 21.2% |
| Kraken by 1 | 22.5% |
| Kraken by 2 | 7.6% |
| Kraken by 3+ | 10.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mammoth | 52 | 3 | 2.98 | +0.02 |
 Kraken | 36 | 4 | 1.80 | +2.20 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 12:31 | Interference on the Mammoth (Lawson Crouse): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% SEA |
| P1 3:48 | Interference on the Kraken (Josh Mahura): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P1 1:48 | Interference on the Mammoth (Kevin Stenlund): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SEA |
| P2 19:29 | Interference on the Mammoth (Kailer Yamamoto): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SEA |
| P2 17:55 | Tripping on the Mammoth (Jack McBain): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SEA |
| P2 6:07 | Cross checking on the Kraken (Adam Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% UTA |
| P2 0:30 | High sticking on the Kraken (Jared McCann): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% UTA |
| P3 11:21 | A Kraken goal came off the board on review (off side) | +31% UTA |
When it happened
Kraken’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 16:22 | Jordan Eberle scored on a slap shot from 54 feetShooting · 1% chance | +15% SEA | – |
| 2 | P1 2:03 | Vincent Trocheck scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 17% chance | +15% UTA | – |
| 3 | P1 1:37 | Matty Beniers scored on a deflected shot from 6 feetShooting · 11% chance | +16% SEA | – |
| 4 | P2 17:37 | Brandon Montour scored on a slap shot from 42 feetShooting · 7% chance | +13% SEA | – |
| 5 | P3 19:33 | Logan Cooley scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 15% chance | +13% UTA | – |
| 6 | P3 12:18 | Logan Cooley scored on a slap shot from 51 feetShooting · 4% chance | +29% UTA | – |
| 7 | P3 11:21 | A Kraken goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals | +31% UTA | – |
| 8 | P3 5:25 | Mackie Samoskevich scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 9% chance | +34% SEA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Mammoth 28% · Kraken 72%
- Final margin
- Kraken by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for the Kraken
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kraken by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Mammoth 60% · Kraken 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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