2026-27 regular season · October 24, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Lightning at Mammoth, Oct 24, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Mammoth beat the Lightning 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Mammoth win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Mammoth.
The biggest swing (OT): the Mammoth won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Mammoth.
Final (OT)
 Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 |
|---|---|
 Utah Mammoth | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 Mammoth lucky · −60 Lightning
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lightning win 6, Mammoth win 4.
- 1 TBL 6 UTA 1
- 2 TBL 7 UTA 3
- 3 TBL 5 UTA 2
- 4 TBL 4 UTA 2
- 5 TBL 6 UTA 5
- 6 TBL 4 UTA 3
- 7 TBL 3 UTA 4
- 8 TBL 3 UTA 4
- 9 TBL 2 UTA 4
- 10 TBL 3 UTA 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Mammoth by 0.3, 55% to win. The Mammoth won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.7 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Lightning win | 45.1% |
| Mammoth win | 54.9% |
| Middle 50%: Lightning by 2 to Mammoth by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Lightning by 4 to Mammoth by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Lightning by 4 to Mammoth by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 1 | 21.7% |
| Exactly Lightning by 1 | 19.4% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 3 | 13.3% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 2 | 10.4% |
| Exactly Lightning by 3 | 10.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 24, 6:44 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lightning win 60% of them, Mammoth 40%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lightning by 3+ | 31.5% |
| Lightning by 2 | 10.6% |
| Lightning by 1 | 17.6% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 17.9% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 7.8% |
| Mammoth by 3+ | 14.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lightning | 47 | 4 | 3.94 | +0.06 |
 Mammoth | 45 | 4 | 3.20 | +0.80 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:28 | Slashing on the Lightning (Jeffrey Viel): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P1 12:18 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Mammoth (Jack McBain): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P1 8:37 | Interference on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P1 2:41 | Interference on the Lightning (Emil Lilleberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% UTA |
| P2 17:36 | Tripping on the Mammoth (Mikhail Sergachev): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TBL |
| P2 7:27 | Hooking on the Lightning (Nikita Kucherov): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% UTA |
When it happened
Mammoth’ chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:50 | Jake Guentzel scored on a shot from 11 feetShooting · 25% chance | +12% TBL | – |
| 2 | P1 12:58 | Kailer Yamamoto scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% UTA | – |
| 3 | P1 9:54 | Pontus Holmberg scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 4% chance | +16% TBL | – |
| 4 | P1 2:21 | Dylan Guenther scored on a slap shot from 32 feetShooting · 9% chance | +14% UTA | – |
| 5 | P2 14:28 | Conor Geekie scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 18% chance | +13% TBL | – |
| 6 | P2 5:21 | Anders Lee scored on a tip from 6 feetShooting · 9% chance | +15% UTA | – |
| 7 | P2 2:58 | Dmitri Simashev scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 5% chance | +23% UTA | – |
| 8 | OT | The Mammoth won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +49% UTA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lightning 62% · Mammoth 38%
- Final margin
- Mammoth by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for the Mammoth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lightning by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Lightning 60% · Mammoth 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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