2026-27 regular season · October 24, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Maple Leafs at Oilers, Oct 24, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Maple Leafs beat the Oilers 7–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Maple Leafs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.
The biggest swing (P2, 14:31 left): Auston Matthews scored on a wrist shot from 13 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.
Final
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 |
|---|---|
 Edmonton Oilers | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Maple Leafs lucky · −55 Oilers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 5, Oilers win 5.
- 1 TOR 4 EDM 0
- 2 TOR 3 EDM 0
- 3 TOR 6 EDM 4
- 4 TOR 3 EDM 2
- 5 TOR 3 EDM 2
- 6 TOR 3 EDM 4
- 7 TOR 5 EDM 6
- 8 TOR 0 EDM 2
- 9 TOR 2 EDM 5
- 10 TOR 1 EDM 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Oilers by 0.9, 65% to win. The Maple Leafs won by 5, a result we gave 35%. The final margin was 5.9 goals from ours; 1% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Maple Leafs win | 35.5% |
| Oilers win | 64.5% |
| Middle 50%: Maple Leafs by 1 to Oilers by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Maple Leafs by 3 to Oilers by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Maple Leafs by 4 to Oilers by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Oilers by 1 | 22.5% |
| Exactly Maple Leafs by 1 | 16.8% |
| Exactly Oilers by 3 | 16.5% |
| Exactly Oilers by 2 | 11.9% |
| Exactly Oilers by 4 | 8.4% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 24, 6:44 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Maple Leafs win 45% of them, Oilers 55%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maple Leafs by 3+ | 16.5% |
| Maple Leafs by 2 | 9.8% |
| Maple Leafs by 1 | 19.2% |
| Oilers by 1 | 19.9% |
| Oilers by 2 | 10.5% |
| Oilers by 3+ | 24.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maple Leafs | 44 | 6 | 2.76 | +3.24 |
 Oilers | 53 | 2 | 3.42 | −1.42 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 16:27 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Jack Roslovic): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P2 5:21 | Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Easton Cowan): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% EDM |
| P3 14:15 | Hooking on the Oilers (Colton Dach): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% TOR |
| P3 3:48 | Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Colton Sissons): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% EDM |
When it happened
Oilers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 16:27 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Jack Roslovic): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% EDM | – |
| 2 | P1 5:44 | Jack Roslovic scored on a shot from 7 feetShooting · 31% chance | +12% TOR | – |
| 3 | P1 2:31 | Filip Hallander’s snap shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance | +4% TOR | – |
| 4 | P1 2:30 | Filip Hallander’s backhand shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance | +4% TOR | – |
| 5 | P2 14:31 | Auston Matthews scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 11% chance | +14% TOR | – |
| 6 | P2 13:37 | Troy Stecher scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 10% chance | +9% TOR | – |
| 7 | P2 0:56 | Leon Draisaitl scored on a wrist shot from 45 feetShooting · 4% chance | +7% EDM | – |
| 8 | P3 14:01 | William Nylander scored on a slap shot from 30 feetShooting · 13% chance | +5% TOR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maple Leafs 70% · Oilers 30%
- Final margin
- Maple Leafs by 5
- Luck in goals
- 4.0 for the Maple Leafs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maple Leafs by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Maple Leafs 45% · Oilers 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 4, 2026-27
- Wild at Oilers Oct 20, 2026 · EDM 4–3 OT · replay 30% for the winner
- Sharks at Senators Oct 22, 2026 · SJS 6–2 · replay 30% for the winner
- Kings at Capitals Oct 20, 2026 · LAK 5–2 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wild at Flames Oct 22, 2026 · CGY 2–1 · replay 33% for the winner
- Lightning at Avalanche Oct 23, 2026 · COL 6–3 · replay 36% for the winner
- Lightning at Golden Knights Oct 20, 2026 · TBL 6–2 · replay 38% for the winner
- Canadiens at Jets Oct 25, 2026 · MTL 2–1 · replay 38% for the winner
- Mammoth at Kraken Oct 22, 2026 · SEA 5–3 · replay 40% for the winner
- Lightning at Mammoth Oct 24, 2026 · UTA 5–4 OT · replay 40% for the winner
- Sharks at Canadiens Oct 20, 2026 · SJS 4–3 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Blue Jackets Oct 20, 2026 · TOR 6–2 · replay 43% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Blue Jackets Oct 24, 2026 · CBJ 2–1 OT · replay 43% for the winner