2026-27 regular season · October 22, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Wild at Flames, Oct 22, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Flames beat the Wild 2–1, but the replays lean toward the Wild: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 63 points of win probability to the Flames.
The biggest swing (P1, 9:11 left): Aydar Suniev scored on a wrist shot from 25 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Flames.
Final
 Minnesota Wild | 1 |
|---|---|
 Calgary Flames | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Flames very lucky · −67 Wild
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wild win 7, Flames win 3.
- 1 MIN 8 CGY 2
- 2 MIN 4 CGY 0
- 3 MIN 4 CGY 1
- 4 MIN 5 CGY 2
- 5 MIN 3 CGY 1
- 6 MIN 3 CGY 2
- 7 MIN 6 CGY 5
- 8 MIN 2 CGY 3
- 9 MIN 3 CGY 4
- 10 MIN 1 CGY 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Wild by 0.6, 60% to win. The Flames won by 1, a result we gave 40%. The final margin was 1.6 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Wild win | 60.2% |
| Flames win | 39.8% |
| Middle 50%: Wild by 3 to Flames by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Wild by 4 to Flames by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Wild by 5 to Flames by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Wild by 1 | 21.7% |
| Exactly Flames by 1 | 18.4% |
| Exactly Wild by 3 | 14.8% |
| Exactly Wild by 2 | 12.0% |
| Exactly Flames by 3 | 8.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 22, 8:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Wild win 67% of them, Flames 33%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wild by 3+ | 35.6% |
| Wild by 2 | 12.3% |
| Wild by 1 | 18.7% |
| Flames by 1 | 19.4% |
| Flames by 2 | 6.5% |
| Flames by 3+ | 7.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wild | 55 | 1 | 3.88 | −2.88 |
 Flames | 28 | 2 | 1.83 | +0.17 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:32 | Boarding on the Wild (Yakov Trenin): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P1 10:30 | Tripping on the Wild (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P1 6:38 | Interference on the Wild (Zach Bogosian): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P2 7:46 | Tripping on the Flames (Yan Kuznetsov): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% MIN |
| P2 5:40 | Slashing on the Flames (Ryan Strome): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% MIN |
| P3 18:58 | Holding the stick on the Flames (Matt Coronato): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% MIN |
| P3 14:09 | Interference on the Flames (Martin Pospisil): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MIN |
| P3 5:10 | Tripping on the Wild (Quinn Hughes): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% CGY |
When it happened
Flames’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 9:11 | Aydar Suniev scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 11% chance | +15% CGY | – |
| 2 | P1 5:54 | Joel Farabee scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 9% chance | +12% CGY | – |
| 3 | P3 15:21 | Michael McCarron scored on a slap shot from 26 feetShooting · 7% chance | +13% MIN | – |
| 4 | P3 14:02 | Matt Boldy’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance | +7% CGY | – |
| 5 | P3 14:01 | Matt Boldy’s wrist shot from 3 feet was savedShooting · 52% chance | +15% CGY | – |
| 6 | P3 5:10 | Tripping on the Wild (Quinn Hughes): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% CGY | – |
| 7 | P3 2:07 | Kirill Kaprizov’s wrist shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +6% CGY | – |
| 8 | P3 1:48 | Danila Yurov’s wrist shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 6% chanceJoel Eriksson Ek missed the net with a tip from 5 feetShooting · 12% chance | +8% CGY | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wild 71% · Flames 29%
- Final margin
- Flames by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for the Flames
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wild by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Wild 67% · Flames 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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