2026-27 regular season · November 7, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Canadiens at Maple Leafs, Nov 7, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Canadiens beat the Maple Leafs 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canadiens win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 21 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
The biggest swing (P1, 14:04 left): Alex Newhook scored on a wrist shot from 14 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
Final
 Montreal Canadiens | 4 |
|---|---|
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Canadiens lucky · −57 Maple Leafs
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canadiens win 4, Maple Leafs win 6.
- 1 MTL 3 TOR 0
- 2 MTL 2 TOR 0
- 3 MTL 5 TOR 4
- 4 MTL 3 TOR 2
- 5 MTL 2 TOR 3
- 6 MTL 2 TOR 3
- 7 MTL 2 TOR 4
- 8 MTL 0 TOR 2
- 9 MTL 2 TOR 5
- 10 MTL 3 TOR 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Canadiens by 0.2, 53% to win. The Canadiens won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 1.8 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Canadiens win | 53.0% |
| Maple Leafs win | 47.0% |
| Middle 50%: Canadiens by 2 to Maple Leafs by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Canadiens by 4 to Maple Leafs by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Canadiens by 5 to Maple Leafs by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 1 | 20.9% |
| Exactly Maple Leafs by 1 | 20.2% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 3 | 12.5% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 2 | 10.8% |
| Exactly Maple Leafs by 3 | 10.7% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Nov 7, 6:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Canadiens win 43% of them, Maple Leafs 57%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canadiens by 3+ | 14.0% |
| Canadiens by 2 | 9.1% |
| Canadiens by 1 | 20.0% |
| Maple Leafs by 1 | 21.8% |
| Maple Leafs by 2 | 11.7% |
| Maple Leafs by 3+ | 23.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canadiens | 40 | 4 | 2.44 | +1.56 |
 Maple Leafs | 49 | 2 | 3.33 | −1.33 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 2:35 | Boarding on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% MTL |
| P2 17:10 | High sticking on the Canadiens (Alexandre Carrier): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% TOR |
| P3 15:20 | Unsportsmanlike conduct on the Canadiens (Arber Xhekaj): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% TOR |
| P3 8:23 | Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% MTL |
| P3 3:33 | High sticking double minor on the Canadiens (Juraj Slafkovský): 4 minutes on the power play | +2% TOR |
When it happened
Maple Leafs’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:04 | Alex Newhook scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% MTL | – |
| 2 | P1 6:54 | Alex Newhook scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 7% chance | +14% MTL | – |
| 3 | P1 2:35 | Boarding on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% MTL | – |
| 4 | P2 7:03 | Chris Kreider scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 9% chance | +8% MTL | – |
| 5 | P3 13:41 | William Nylander scored on a slap shot from 28 feetShooting · 14% chance | +5% TOR | – |
| 6 | P3 12:46 | Gavin McKenna scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 14% chance | +13% TOR | – |
| 7 | P3 8:23 | Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% MTL | – |
| 8 | P3 7:45 | Zachary Bolduc scored on a slap shot from 33 feetShooting · 10% chance | +12% MTL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canadiens 61% · Maple Leafs 39%
- Final margin
- Canadiens by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for the Canadiens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Canadiens by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Canadiens 43% · Maple Leafs 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 6, 2026-27
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