2026-27 regular season · November 5, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Mammoth at Canadiens, Nov 5, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Canadiens beat the Mammoth 5–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Mammoth had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 29 points of win probability to the Mammoth.
The biggest swing (OT): the Canadiens won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
Final (OT)
 Utah Mammoth | 4 |
|---|---|
 Montreal Canadiens | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Canadiens lucky · −37 Mammoth
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Mammoth win 4, Canadiens win 6.
- 1 UTA 8 MTL 4
- 2 UTA 4 MTL 2
- 3 UTA 6 MTL 5
- 4 UTA 6 MTL 5
- 5 UTA 4 MTL 5
- 6 UTA 1 MTL 3
- 7 UTA 3 MTL 6
- 8 UTA 4 MTL 7
- 9 UTA 4 MTL 8
- 10 UTA 1 MTL 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Canadiens by 0.1, 51% to win. The Canadiens won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.9 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mammoth win | 48.5% |
| Canadiens win | 51.5% |
| Middle 50%: Mammoth by 2 to Canadiens by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Mammoth by 4 to Canadiens by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Mammoth by 4 to Canadiens by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 1 | 21.1% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 1 | 20.1% |
| Exactly Canadiens by 3 | 12.2% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 3 | 11.1% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 2 | 9.9% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Nov 5, 1:24 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.2 replays ended
Mammoth win 37% of them, Canadiens 63%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Mammoth by 3+ | 13.5% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 7.4% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 15.9% |
| Canadiens by 1 | 16.1% |
| Canadiens by 2 | 9.5% |
| Canadiens by 3+ | 37.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mammoth | 39 | 4 | 3.43 | +0.57 |
 Canadiens | 52 | 4 | 5.12 | −1.12 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:56 | Tripping on the Canadiens (Josh Anderson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P1 0:41 | Holding the stick on the Canadiens (Alexandre Texier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P2 12:39 | Tripping on the Canadiens (Chris Kreider): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% UTA |
| P2 10:46 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Canadiens (Kaiden Guhle): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% UTA |
| P2 8:31 | Holding the stick on the Mammoth (Andrew Peeke): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P2 5:17 | High sticking on the Mammoth (Logan Cooley): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MTL |
| P2 0:25 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Mammoth (Mikhail Sergachev): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MTL |
| P3 13:40 | High sticking on the Canadiens (Juraj Slafkovský): 2 minutes on the power play | +7% UTA |
| P3 7:37 | Interference on the Mammoth (Liam O'Brien): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% MTL |
When it happened
Canadiens’ chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:18 | Logan Cooley scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 21% chance | +13% UTA | – |
| 2 | P1 4:35 | Nick Suzuki scored on a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 13% chance | +13% MTL | – |
| 3 | P1 2:50 | Arber Xhekaj scored on a slap shot from 50 feetShooting · 2% chance | +18% MTL | – |
| 4 | P2 8:55 | Logan Cooley scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 14% chance | +19% UTA | – |
| 5 | P3 12:46 | Nick Schmaltz scored on a snap shot from 11 feetShooting · 24% chance | +23% UTA | – |
| 6 | P3 6:27 | Cole Caufield’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 40% chance | +15% UTA | – |
| 7 | P3 5:06 | Adam Engstrom scored on a snap shot from 43 feetShooting · 5% chance | +37% MTL | – |
| 8 | OT | The Canadiens won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +49% MTL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Mammoth 25% · Canadiens 75%
- Final margin
- Canadiens by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for the Mammoth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Canadiens by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Mammoth 37% · Canadiens 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 6, 2026-27
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