2026-27 regular season · November 5, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Bruins at Penguins, Nov 5, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bruins beat the Penguins 6–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bruins win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 30 points of win probability to the Bruins.
The biggest swing (P1, 4:56 left): Mark Kastelic scored on a tip from 18 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Bruins.
Final
 Boston Bruins | 6 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Bruins lucky · −45 Penguins
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bruins win 5, Penguins win 5.
- 1 BOS 5 PIT 1
- 2 BOS 3 PIT 0
- 3 BOS 5 PIT 3
- 4 BOS 2 PIT 1
- 5 BOS 4 PIT 3
- 6 BOS 1 PIT 2
- 7 BOS 3 PIT 4
- 8 BOS 4 PIT 5
- 9 BOS 2 PIT 4
- 10 BOS 0 PIT 3
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Penguins by 0.5, 58% to win. The Bruins won by 4, a result we gave 42%. The final margin was 4.5 goals from ours; 6% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bruins win | 41.9% |
| Penguins win | 58.1% |
| Middle 50%: Bruins by 1 to Penguins by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Bruins by 4 to Penguins by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Bruins by 4 to Penguins by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Penguins by 1 | 22.0% |
| Exactly Bruins by 1 | 18.6% |
| Exactly Penguins by 3 | 14.3% |
| Exactly Penguins by 2 | 10.9% |
| Exactly Bruins by 3 | 9.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Nov 5, 1:24 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bruins win 55% of them, Penguins 45%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bruins by 3+ | 23.9% |
| Bruins by 2 | 10.3% |
| Bruins by 1 | 20.3% |
| Penguins by 1 | 22.3% |
| Penguins by 2 | 9.5% |
| Penguins by 3+ | 13.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bruins | 34 | 6 | 2.70 | +3.30 |
 Penguins | 34 | 2 | 2.36 | −0.36 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:32 | Tripping on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P2 15:43 | Tripping on the Bruins (Pavel Zacha): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PIT |
When it happened
Penguins’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:32 | Tripping on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% BOS | – |
| 2 | P1 10:56 | Justin Brazeau scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 6% chance | +15% PIT | – |
| 3 | P1 7:53 | Pavel Zacha scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 14% chance | +15% BOS | – |
| 4 | P1 4:56 | Mark Kastelic scored on a tip from 18 feetShooting · 8% chance | +17% BOS | – |
| 5 | P1 1:03 | Elias Lindholm scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 16% chance | +13% BOS | – |
| 6 | P2 12:03 | Nick Robertson scored on a tip from 13 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% PIT | – |
| 7 | P2 5:36 | Pavel Zacha scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 12% chance | +14% BOS | – |
| 8 | P2 3:03 | Morgan Geekie scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 17% chance | +7% BOS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bruins 73% · Penguins 27%
- Final margin
- Bruins by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.7 for the Bruins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bruins by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Bruins 55% · Penguins 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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