luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · November 7, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Kings, Nov 7, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Penguins beat the Kings 5–2, but the replays lean toward the Kings: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 31 points of win probability to the Penguins.

The biggest swing (P1, 0:29 left): Egor Chinakhov scored on a wrist shot from 40 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Penguins.

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Los Angeles Kings 2

November 7, 2026 · Crypto.com Arena

Our prediction before puck drop: Kings by 0.1

Luck index +67 Penguins very lucky · −67 Kings

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 3, Kings win 7.

  1. 1 PIT 4 LAK 1
  2. 2 PIT 2 LAK 1
  3. 3 PIT 2 LAK 1
  4. 4 PIT 3 LAK 4
  5. 5 PIT 2 LAK 3
  6. 6 PIT 1 LAK 3
  7. 7 PIT 0 LAK 3
  8. 8 PIT 1 LAK 4
  9. 9 PIT 2 LAK 6
  10. 10 PIT 0 LAK 5

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Kings by 0.1, 51% to win. The Penguins won by 3, a result we gave 49%. The final margin was 3.1 goals from ours; 16% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Penguins win48.6%
Kings win51.4%
Middle 50%: Penguins by 2 to Kings by 250%
Middle 90%: Penguins by 4 to Kings by 490%
Middle 95%: Penguins by 4 to Kings by 595%
Exactly Kings by 121.1%
Exactly Penguins by 120.1%
Exactly Kings by 312.1%
Exactly Penguins by 311.1%
Exactly Penguins by 210.0%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Nov 7, 6:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Penguins win 33% of them, Kings 67%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+7.6%
Penguins by 26.3%
Penguins by 119.2%
Kings by 120.7%
Kings by 212.4%
Kings by 3+33.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 goals to the Penguins: the final margin was Penguins by 3, without the luck Kings by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins3341.81+2.19
Kings4923.87−1.87

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 5:59 Hooking on the Penguins (Sidney Crosby): 2 minutes on the power play +4% LAK
P1 2:22 Interference on the Kings (Drew Doughty): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 0:29 High sticking on the Kings (Artemi Panarin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PIT
P2 17:52 Hooking on the Penguins (Samuel Girard): 2 minutes on the power play +3% LAK
P3 16:52 Holding on the Penguins (Sidney Crosby): 2 minutes on the power play +3% LAK
P3 15:59 Slashing on the Kings (Artemi Panarin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PIT

When it happened

Kings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kings were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:08 Tommy Novak scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% PIT –
2 P1 14:50 Tommy Novak scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 22% chance +11% PIT –
3 P1 10:05 Corey Perry scored on a bat shot from 2 feetShooting · 38% chance +9% LAK –
4 P1 2:22 Interference on the Kings (Drew Doughty): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PIT –
5 P1 0:29 Egor Chinakhov scored on a wrist shot from 40 feetShooting · 5% chanceHigh sticking on the Kings (Artemi Panarin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +18% PIT –
6 P2 16:53 Alex Laferriere scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 4% chance +15% LAK –
7 P2 4:19 Artemi Panarin missed the net with a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 24% chance +6% PIT –
8 P2 2:47 Sidney Crosby scored on a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 5% chance +16% PIT –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 46% · Kings 54%

Final margin
Penguins by 3
Luck in goals
3.3 for the Penguins
Luck-adjusted margin
Kings by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 33% · Kings 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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