2026-27 regular season · November 3, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Hurricanes at Predators, Nov 3, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Predators beat the Hurricanes 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 43 points of win probability to the Predators.
The biggest swing (P1, 7:28 left): Nick Perbix scored on a wrist shot from 26 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Predators.
Final
 Carolina Hurricanes | 1 |
|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Predators lucky · −57 Hurricanes
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hurricanes win 6, Predators win 4.
- 1 CAR 8 NSH 3
- 2 CAR 5 NSH 1
- 3 CAR 5 NSH 2
- 4 CAR 3 NSH 1
- 5 CAR 3 NSH 2
- 6 CAR 2 NSH 1
- 7 CAR 5 NSH 6
- 8 CAR 2 NSH 3
- 9 CAR 4 NSH 6
- 10 CAR 5 NSH 9
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Hurricanes by 0.7, 62% to win. The Predators won by 3, a result we gave 38%. The final margin was 3.7 goals from ours; 9% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes win | 62.0% |
| Predators win | 38.0% |
| Middle 50%: Hurricanes by 3 to Predators by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Hurricanes by 4 to Predators by 3 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Hurricanes by 5 to Predators by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 1 | 21.9% |
| Exactly Predators by 1 | 17.9% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 3 | 15.4% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 2 | 12.2% |
| Exactly Predators by 3 | 8.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Nov 3, 1:10 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Hurricanes win 57% of them, Predators 43%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 27.9% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 10.4% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 19.0% |
| Predators by 1 | 19.1% |
| Predators by 2 | 8.5% |
| Predators by 3+ | 15.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hurricanes | 50 | 1 | 3.97 | −2.97 |
 Predators | 34 | 3 | 2.79 | +0.21 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 2:38 | Hooking on the Predators (Alexander Kerfoot): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P2 15:56 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Pyotr Kochetkov): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NSH |
| P2 5:32 | Tripping on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P3 11:47 | Interference on the Hurricanes (Sean Walker): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% NSH |
When it happened
Predators’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 7:28 | Nick Perbix scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 7% chance | +16% NSH | – |
| 2 | P1 1:12 | Mark Jankowski missed the net with a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 30% chance | +5% NSH | – |
| 3 | P2 16:31 | Roman Josi scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 11% chance | +13% NSH | – |
| 4 | P2 9:32 | Jackson Blake scored on a backhand shot from 14 feetShooting · 8% chance | +13% CAR | – |
| 5 | P2 5:32 | Tripping on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CAR | – |
| 6 | P2 4:13 | Sebastian Aho missed the net with a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 25% chance | +6% NSH | – |
| 7 | P2 3:33 | Logan Stankoven’s snap shot from 21 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance | +5% NSH | – |
| 8 | P3 14:20 | Adam Edstrom scored on a tip from 25 feetShooting · 4% chance | +14% NSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hurricanes 41% · Predators 59%
- Final margin
- Predators by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.6 for the Predators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Predators by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Hurricanes 57% · Predators 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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