2026-27 regular season · November 5, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Ducks at Oilers, Nov 5, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Ducks beat the Oilers 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ducks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Ducks.
The biggest swing (P2, 16:23 left): Pavel Mintyukov scored on a wrist shot from 26 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Ducks.
Final
 Anaheim Ducks | 5 |
|---|---|
 Edmonton Oilers | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Ducks lucky · −48 Oilers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ducks win 5, Oilers win 5.
- 1 ANA 5 EDM 1
- 2 ANA 3 EDM 0
- 3 ANA 7 EDM 5
- 4 ANA 3 EDM 2
- 5 ANA 7 EDM 6
- 6 ANA 2 EDM 3
- 7 ANA 5 EDM 6
- 8 ANA 3 EDM 5
- 9 ANA 1 EDM 4
- 10 ANA 1 EDM 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Oilers by 0.6, 60% to win. The Ducks won by 1, a result we gave 40%. The final margin was 1.6 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ducks win | 39.8% |
| Oilers win | 60.2% |
| Middle 50%: Ducks by 1 to Oilers by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Ducks by 4 to Oilers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Ducks by 4 to Oilers by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Oilers by 1 | 22.2% |
| Exactly Ducks by 1 | 18.0% |
| Exactly Oilers by 3 | 15.0% |
| Exactly Oilers by 2 | 11.2% |
| Exactly Ducks by 3 | 8.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Nov 5, 1:24 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Ducks win 52% of them, Oilers 48%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ducks by 3+ | 23.9% |
| Ducks by 2 | 10.2% |
| Ducks by 1 | 17.8% |
| Oilers by 1 | 18.8% |
| Oilers by 2 | 9.6% |
| Oilers by 3+ | 19.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ducks | 37 | 5 | 3.52 | +1.48 |
 Oilers | 42 | 4 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 16:10 | Hooking on the Oilers (Evan Bouchard): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P1 11:54 | Fighting on the Oilers (Vasily Podkolzin): 5 minutes on the power play | +10% ANA |
| P1 6:39 | Cross checking on the Oilers (Max Jones): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P1 3:22 | Interference on the Ducks (Noah Warren): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P1 0:27 | Holding on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P2 19:10 | Hooking on the Oilers (Filip Hallander): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P2 15:29 | Too many men on the ice on the Ducks (ANA): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% EDM |
| P2 15:14 | Abuse of officials on the Oilers (Leon Draisaitl): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% ANA |
| P2 10:13 | Cross checking on the Ducks (Noah Warren): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P2 6:54 | Holding on the Oilers (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% ANA |
| P3 18:50 | Tripping on the Oilers (Mathieu Joseph): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% ANA |
| P3 13:36 | Hooking on the Ducks (Noah Warren): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% EDM |
| P3 4:27 | High sticking on the Ducks (Travis Mitchell): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% EDM |
When it happened
Oilers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 11:54 | Fighting on the Oilers (Vasily Podkolzin): 5 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +10% ANA | – |
| 2 | P1 10:34 | Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 16% chance | +14% ANA | – |
| 3 | P1 0:19 | Evan Bouchard scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 13% chance | +16% EDM | – |
| 4 | P2 17:26 | Connor McDavid scored on a bat shot from 18 feetShooting · 13% chance | +16% EDM | – |
| 5 | P2 16:23 | Pavel Mintyukov scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 3% chance | +19% ANA | – |
| 6 | P2 13:45 | Pavel Mintyukov scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 13% chance | +18% ANA | – |
| 7 | P2 0:38 | Beckett Sennecke scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 21% chance | +13% ANA | – |
| 8 | P3 18:18 | Beckett Sennecke scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 16% chance | +6% ANA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ducks 42% · Oilers 58%
- Final margin
- Ducks by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for the Ducks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oilers by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Ducks 52% · Oilers 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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