2026-27 regular season · November 8, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Penguins at Ducks, Nov 8, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Ducks beat the Penguins 5–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 13:32 left): Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 26 feet, worth 13 points of win probability to the Ducks.
Final
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 2 |
|---|---|
 Anaheim Ducks | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Ducks lucky · −39 Penguins
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Penguins win 4, Ducks win 6.
- 1 PIT 3 ANA 0
- 2 PIT 3 ANA 1
- 3 PIT 4 ANA 3
- 4 PIT 3 ANA 2
- 5 PIT 3 ANA 4
- 6 PIT 2 ANA 3
- 7 PIT 2 ANA 4
- 8 PIT 2 ANA 5
- 9 PIT 1 ANA 4
- 10 PIT 2 ANA 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Penguins by 0.1, 52% to win. The Ducks won by 3, a result we gave 48%. The final margin was 3.1 goals from ours; 16% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Penguins win | 51.6% |
| Ducks win | 48.4% |
| Middle 50%: Penguins by 2 to Ducks by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Penguins by 4 to Ducks by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Penguins by 5 to Ducks by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Penguins by 1 | 20.6% |
| Exactly Ducks by 1 | 20.5% |
| Exactly Penguins by 3 | 12.0% |
| Exactly Ducks by 3 | 11.2% |
| Exactly Penguins by 2 | 10.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sun, Nov 8, 6:59 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Penguins win 39% of them, Ducks 61%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Penguins by 3+ | 12.1% |
| Penguins by 2 | 8.0% |
| Penguins by 1 | 19.1% |
| Ducks by 1 | 20.1% |
| Ducks by 2 | 10.8% |
| Ducks by 3+ | 29.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Penguins | 50 | 2 | 4.14 | −2.14 |
 Ducks | 40 | 4 | 3.21 | +0.79 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 13:33 | Hooking on the Penguins (Kaedan Korczak): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P1 10:40 | Slashing on the Penguins (Sidney Crosby): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% ANA |
| P1 5:23 | Tripping on the Ducks (Tristan Luneau): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P2 19:40 | Holding on the Ducks (Leo Carlsson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P2 19:17 | High sticking double minor on the Ducks (Alex Killorn): 4 minutes on the power play | +8% PIT |
| P2 14:55 | Holding on the Penguins (Nick Robertson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P3 16:37 | Tripping on the Penguins (Blake Lizotte): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% ANA |
| P3 13:20 | Tripping on the Ducks (Jeff Malott): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% PIT |
| P3 6:48 | Interference on the Ducks (Tim Washe): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% PIT |
When it happened
Ducks’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 13:33 | Hooking on the Penguins (Kaedan Korczak): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% ANA | – |
| 2 | P1 11:34 | Mikael Granlund scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 28% chance | +12% ANA | – |
| 3 | P1 6:54 | Tommy Novak’s snap shot from 10 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance | +4% ANA | – |
| 4 | P2 19:40 | Holding on the Ducks (Leo Carlsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PIT | – |
| 5 | P2 19:17 | High sticking double minor on the Ducks (Alex Killorn): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +8% PIT | – |
| 6 | P2 14:55 | Holding on the Penguins (Nick Robertson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% ANA | – |
| 7 | P2 13:32 | Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 11% chance | +13% ANA | – |
| 8 | P2 10:49 | Cutter Gauthier scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 17% chance | +6% ANA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Penguins 21% · Ducks 79%
- Final margin
- Ducks by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.2 for the Ducks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ducks by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Penguins 39% · Ducks 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 6, 2026-27
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