luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · November 2, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Red Wings at Panthers, Nov 2, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Red Wings beat the Panthers 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Red Wings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

The biggest swing (P3, 17:52 left): Justin Faulk scored on a slap shot from 48 feet, worth 25 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

Final

Detroit Red Wings 5
Florida Panthers 3

November 2, 2026 · Amerant Bank Arena

Our prediction before puck drop: Panthers by 0.4

Luck index +51 Red Wings lucky · −51 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Red Wings win 5, Panthers win 5.

  1. 1 DET 7 FLA 3
  2. 2 DET 6 FLA 3
  3. 3 DET 4 FLA 2
  4. 4 DET 7 FLA 6
  5. 5 DET 4 FLA 3
  6. 6 DET 4 FLA 5
  7. 7 DET 3 FLA 4
  8. 8 DET 2 FLA 4
  9. 9 DET 3 FLA 6
  10. 10 DET 1 FLA 5

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Panthers by 0.4, 57% to win. The Red Wings won by 2, a result we gave 43%. The final margin was 2.4 goals from ours; 40% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Red Wings win42.9%
Panthers win57.1%
Middle 50%: Red Wings by 1 to Panthers by 250%
Middle 90%: Red Wings by 4 to Panthers by 490%
Middle 95%: Red Wings by 4 to Panthers by 595%
Exactly Panthers by 121.9%
Exactly Red Wings by 118.8%
Exactly Panthers by 314.0%
Exactly Panthers by 210.8%
Exactly Red Wings by 39.3%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Mon, Nov 2, 3:43 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Red Wings win 49% of them, Panthers 51%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Red Wings by 3+21.1%
Red Wings by 29.3%
Red Wings by 118.7%
Panthers by 120.8%
Panthers by 29.3%
Panthers by 3+20.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Red Wings: the final margin was Red Wings by 2, without the luck Red Wings by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Red Wings3543.12+0.88
Panthers5134.10−1.10

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 12:54 Tripping on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 13:43 Tripping on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P2 10:26 Holding on the Red Wings (Michael Brandsegg-Nygård): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 6:32 Interference on the Panthers (Dmitry Kulikov): 2 minutes on the power play +5% DET
P3 19:39 High sticking on the Panthers (Lars Eller): 2 minutes on the power play +6% DET

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Red Wings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:34 Carter Mazur scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 3% chance +16% DET –
2 P1 5:41 Sam Reinhart scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 8% chance +17% FLA –
3 P2 18:34 Alex DeBrincat scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 11% chance +17% DET –
4 P2 4:35 Aaron Ekblad scored on a backhand shot from 13 feetShooting · 3% chance +23% FLA –
5 P3 17:52 Justin Faulk scored on a slap shot from 48 feetShooting · 5% chance +25% DET –
6 P3 17:07 Michael Brandsegg-Nygård scored on a wrist shot from 2 feetShooting · 56% chance +7% DET –
7 P3 3:20 Sam Bennett scored on a tip from 5 feetShooting · 18% chance +7% FLA –
8 P3 0:36 Sam Reinhart missed the net with a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 24% chance +11% DET –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Red Wings 62% · Panthers 38%

Final margin
Red Wings by 2
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Red Wings
Luck-adjusted margin
Red Wings by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Red Wings 49% · Panthers 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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