2026-27 regular season · November 7, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Panthers at Capitals, Nov 7, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Capitals beat the Panthers 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P2, 5:05 left): Aliaksei Protas scored on a snap shot from 11 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Capitals.
Final
 Florida Panthers | 3 |
|---|---|
 Washington Capitals | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Capitals lucky · −38 Panthers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 4, Capitals win 6.
- 1 FLA 6 WSH 2
- 2 FLA 7 WSH 5
- 3 FLA 4 WSH 3
- 4 FLA 5 WSH 4
- 5 FLA 3 WSH 4
- 6 FLA 3 WSH 4
- 7 FLA 4 WSH 6
- 8 FLA 3 WSH 6
- 9 FLA 1 WSH 5
- 10 FLA 4 WSH 10
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Capitals by 0.2, 53% to win. The Capitals won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.8 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Panthers win | 47.0% |
| Capitals win | 53.0% |
| Middle 50%: Panthers by 2 to Capitals by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Panthers by 4 to Capitals by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Panthers by 4 to Capitals by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Capitals by 1 | 21.4% |
| Exactly Panthers by 1 | 19.8% |
| Exactly Capitals by 3 | 12.7% |
| Exactly Panthers by 3 | 10.6% |
| Exactly Capitals by 2 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Nov 7, 11:42 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Panthers win 38% of them, Capitals 62%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 3+ | 13.9% |
| Panthers by 2 | 7.3% |
| Panthers by 1 | 16.9% |
| Capitals by 1 | 17.9% |
| Capitals by 2 | 10.4% |
| Capitals by 3+ | 33.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Panthers | 41 | 3 | 3.27 | −0.27 |
 Capitals | 47 | 4 | 4.19 | −0.19 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:56 | Hooking on the Panthers (Sam Reinhart): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WSH |
| P1 11:05 | Boarding on the Capitals (Tom Wilson): 5 minutes on the power play | +10% FLA |
| P1 2:31 | Holding the stick on the Panthers (Carter Verhaeghe): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WSH |
| P2 13:12 | High sticking on the Capitals (Matt Roy): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% FLA |
| P3 10:50 | Holding the stick on the Capitals (Cole Hutson): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% FLA |
| P3 5:25 | Cross checking on the Capitals (Cole Hutson): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% FLA |
| P3 4:01 | Holding on the Panthers (Uvis Balinskis): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% WSH |
When it happened
Capitals’ chance of winning
As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 17:39 | Jack St. Ivany scored on a snap shot from 49 feetShooting · 1% chance | +15% WSH | – |
| 2 | P1 16:47 | Brady Tkachuk scored on a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 11% chance | +14% FLA | – |
| 3 | P1 11:05 | Boarding on the Capitals (Tom Wilson): 5 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +10% FLA | – |
| 4 | P1 10:00 | Brady Tkachuk scored on a snap shot from 4 feetShooting · 18% chance | +14% FLA | – |
| 5 | P2 15:21 | Alex Tuch scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 10% chance | +18% WSH | – |
| 6 | P2 13:12 | High sticking on the Capitals (Matt Roy): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% FLA | – |
| 7 | P2 5:05 | Aliaksei Protas scored on a snap shot from 11 feetShooting · 16% chance | +19% WSH | – |
| 8 | P3 15:18 | Pierre-Luc Dubois scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 14% chance | +12% WSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 36% · Capitals 64%
- Final margin
- Capitals by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.1 for the Capitals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Capitals by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 38% · Capitals 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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