2026-27 regular season · November 8, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Panthers at Bruins, Nov 8, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bruins beat the Panthers 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bruins win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Bruins.
The biggest swing (P1, 15:10 left): Elias Lindholm scored on a wrist shot from 49 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bruins.
Final
 Florida Panthers | 1 |
|---|---|
 Boston Bruins | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +43 Bruins lucky · −43 Panthers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 4, Bruins win 6.
- 1 FLA 5 BOS 1
- 2 FLA 5 BOS 2
- 3 FLA 4 BOS 3
- 4 FLA 2 BOS 1
- 5 FLA 5 BOS 6
- 6 FLA 3 BOS 4
- 7 FLA 4 BOS 6
- 8 FLA 5 BOS 8
- 9 FLA 2 BOS 5
- 10 FLA 2 BOS 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Bruins by 0.1, 51% to win. The Bruins won by 3: the pick was right. The final margin was 2.9 goals from ours; 27% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Panthers win | 48.9% |
| Bruins win | 51.1% |
| Middle 50%: Panthers by 2 to Bruins by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Panthers by 4 to Bruins by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Panthers by 4 to Bruins by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Bruins by 1 | 21.1% |
| Exactly Panthers by 1 | 20.2% |
| Exactly Bruins by 3 | 12.0% |
| Exactly Panthers by 3 | 11.2% |
| Exactly Panthers by 2 | 10.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sun, Nov 8, 11:51 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.6 replays ended
Panthers win 43% of them, Bruins 57%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 3+ | 17.3% |
| Panthers by 2 | 7.6% |
| Panthers by 1 | 17.7% |
| Bruins by 1 | 18.1% |
| Bruins by 2 | 10.1% |
| Bruins by 3+ | 29.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Panthers | 55 | 1 | 3.73 | −2.73 |
 Bruins | 47 | 4 | 4.07 | −0.07 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 19:29 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P1 12:58 | Holding on the Bruins (Marat Khusnutdinov): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P1 8:16 | Cross checking on the Bruins (Fraser Minten): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P1 4:58 | Hooking on the Panthers (Sam Bennett): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% BOS |
| P1 4:51 | Slashing on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% BOS |
| P1 3:00 | Interference on the Bruins (Fraser Minten): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% FLA |
| P1 1:47 | High sticking on the Bruins (Matthew Poitras): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P2 12:59 | Tripping on the Panthers (Carter Verhaeghe): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% BOS |
| P2 5:16 | Roughing on the Panthers (Anton Lundell): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% BOS |
| P3 15:04 | Hooking on the Panthers (Cole Reinhardt): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% BOS |
| P3 11:58 | High sticking on the Panthers (Matthew Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% BOS |
| P3 8:08 | Roughing on the Panthers (Matthew Tkachuk): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% BOS |
| P3 5:29 | Interference on the Bruins (Mark Kastelic): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% FLA |
| P3 3:46 | Interference on the Panthers (Sam Reinhart): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% BOS |
When it happened
Bruins’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 19:29 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% BOS | – |
| 2 | P1 15:10 | Elias Lindholm scored on a wrist shot from 49 feetShooting · 2% chance | +16% BOS | – |
| 3 | P1 13:49 | Michael Eyssimont scored on a poke shot from 7 feetShooting · 11% chance | +12% BOS | – |
| 4 | P1 8:00 | Brady Tkachuk’s between-the-legs shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance | +3% BOS | – |
| 5 | P1 7:01 | Sam Reinhart’s snap shot from 17 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +3% BOS | – |
| 6 | P1 4:01 | Morgan Geekie scored on a slap shot from 27 feetShooting · 9% chance | +8% BOS | – |
| 7 | P1 1:55 | Carter Verhaeghe scored on a slap shot from 29 feetShooting · 10% chance | +8% FLA | – |
| 8 | P3 19:02 | JJ Peterka scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 14% chance | +5% BOS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 31% · Bruins 69%
- Final margin
- Bruins by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for the Bruins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bruins by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 43% · Bruins 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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