2026-27 regular season · October 6, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Predators at Maple Leafs, Oct 6, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Maple Leafs beat the Predators 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Maple Leafs win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.
The biggest swing (OT): the Maple Leafs won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.
Final (OT)
 Nashville Predators | 4 |
|---|---|
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Maple Leafs lucky · −46 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Predators win 5, Maple Leafs win 5.
- 1 NSH 5 TOR 1
- 2 NSH 5 TOR 2
- 3 NSH 3 TOR 1
- 4 NSH 4 TOR 3
- 5 NSH 3 TOR 2
- 6 NSH 3 TOR 4
- 7 NSH 4 TOR 5
- 8 NSH 0 TOR 2
- 9 NSH 2 TOR 5
- 10 NSH 0 TOR 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Maple Leafs by 0.2, 53% to win. The Maple Leafs won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.8 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Predators win | 47.4% |
| Maple Leafs win | 52.6% |
| Middle 50%: Predators by 2 to Maple Leafs by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Predators by 4 to Maple Leafs by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Predators by 4 to Maple Leafs by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Maple Leafs by 1 | 21.3% |
| Exactly Predators by 1 | 19.9% |
| Exactly Maple Leafs by 3 | 12.5% |
| Exactly Predators by 3 | 10.7% |
| Exactly Maple Leafs by 2 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 6, 5:12 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Predators win 46% of them, Maple Leafs 54%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Predators by 3+ | 17.3% |
| Predators by 2 | 8.5% |
| Predators by 1 | 20.4% |
| Maple Leafs by 1 | 21.4% |
| Maple Leafs by 2 | 10.6% |
| Maple Leafs by 3+ | 21.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Predators | 38 | 4 | 2.78 | +1.22 |
 Maple Leafs | 48 | 4 | 3.14 | +0.86 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:29 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Morgan Rielly): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P1 0:13 | Tripping on the Predators (Jonathan Marchessault): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% TOR |
| P2 14:29 | Hooking on the Predators (Jack Drury): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% TOR |
| P2 4:54 | Cross checking on the Predators (Ross Colton): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% TOR |
When it happened
Maple Leafs’ chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:47 | Steven Stamkos scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 33% chance | +11% NSH | – |
| 2 | P1 10:52 | Nils Hoglander scored on a backhand shot from 2 feetShooting · 32% chance | +10% NSH | – |
| 3 | P2 15:04 | John Tavares scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 5% chance | +9% TOR | – |
| 4 | P2 13:02 | William Nylander scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 20% chance | +13% TOR | – |
| 5 | P2 6:30 | Steven Stamkos scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 4% chance | +16% NSH | – |
| 6 | P2 5:29 | Gavin McKenna scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 5% chance | +16% TOR | – |
| 7 | P3 11:06 | Jack Roslovic scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 13% chance | +28% TOR | – |
| 8 | OT | The Maple Leafs won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +49% TOR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Predators 44% · Maple Leafs 56%
- Final margin
- Maple Leafs by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.7 for the Maple Leafs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maple Leafs by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Predators 46% · Maple Leafs 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 2, 2026-27
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