2026-27 regular season · October 6, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blues at Blackhawks, Oct 6, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Blackhawks beat the Blues 4–2, but the replays lean toward the Blues: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 37 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.
The biggest swing (P2, 12:20 left): Anton Frondell scored on a snap shot from 18 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.
Final
 St. Louis Blues | 2 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Blackhawks | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Blackhawks very lucky · −62 Blues
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blues win 6, Blackhawks win 4.
- 1 STL 4 CHI 0
- 2 STL 4 CHI 1
- 3 STL 3 CHI 1
- 4 STL 3 CHI 1
- 5 STL 3 CHI 2
- 6 STL 1 CHI 0
- 7 STL 0 CHI 1
- 8 STL 1 CHI 2
- 9 STL 1 CHI 3
- 10 STL 0 CHI 3
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Blues by 0.4, 57% to win. The Blackhawks won by 2, a result we gave 43%. The final margin was 2.4 goals from ours; 40% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Blues win | 57.2% |
| Blackhawks win | 42.8% |
| Middle 50%: Blues by 2 to Blackhawks by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Blues by 4 to Blackhawks by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Blues by 5 to Blackhawks by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Blues by 1 | 21.4% |
| Exactly Blackhawks by 1 | 19.3% |
| Exactly Blues by 3 | 13.8% |
| Exactly Blues by 2 | 11.5% |
| Exactly Blackhawks by 3 | 9.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 6, 5:12 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Blues win 62% of them, Blackhawks 38%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blues by 3+ | 24.7% |
| Blues by 2 | 13.0% |
| Blues by 1 | 24.7% |
| Blackhawks by 1 | 22.2% |
| Blackhawks by 2 | 8.2% |
| Blackhawks by 3+ | 7.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blues | 46 | 2 | 2.84 | −0.84 |
 Blackhawks | 31 | 2 | 1.38 | +0.62 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:37 | Tripping on the Blues (Jonatan Berggren): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P1 14:12 | Interference on the Blackhawks (Patrick Kane): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% STL |
| P2 18:59 | A Blackhawks goal came off the board on review (off side) | +18% STL |
| P2 16:20 | Interference on the Blues (Ross Johnston): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P3 2:23 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Roman Kantserov): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% STL |
When it happened
Blackhawks’ chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 13:16 | Connor McMichael’s wrist shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 16% chanceConnor McMichael’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance | +6% CHI | – |
| 2 | P1 4:22 | Mason McTavish scored on a wrist shot from 35 feetShooting · 5% chance | +17% STL | – |
| 3 | P2 18:59 | A Blackhawks goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals | +18% STL | – |
| 4 | P2 14:20 | Sam Rinzel scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 18% chance | +17% CHI | – |
| 5 | P2 12:20 | Anton Frondell scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 10% chance | +18% CHI | – |
| 6 | P3 14:30 | Ross Johnston’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 16% chanceRoss Johnston hit the right post with a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 19% chance | +10% CHI | – |
| 7 | P3 2:23 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Roman Kantserov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% STL | – |
| 8 | P3 2:17 | Robert Thomas’s snap shot from 33 feet was savedShooting · 11% chance | +5% CHI | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blues 47% · Blackhawks 53%
- Final margin
- Blackhawks by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.8 for the Blackhawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blackhawks by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Blues 62% · Blackhawks 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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