2026-27 regular season · October 10, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Maple Leafs at Avalanche, Oct 10, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Maple Leafs beat the Avalanche 6–3, but the replays lean toward the Avalanche: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 40 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.
The game turned on a luck play (P2, 3:13 left): William Nylander scored on a wrist shot from 30 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs. The biggest single swing (P2, 2:27 left): Easton Cowan scored on a slap shot from 23 feet.
Final
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 6 |
|---|---|
 Colorado Avalanche | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +65 Maple Leafs very lucky · −65 Avalanche
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 4, Avalanche win 6.
- 1 TOR 6 COL 3
- 2 TOR 7 COL 5
- 3 TOR 2 COL 1
- 4 TOR 2 COL 1
- 5 TOR 3 COL 4
- 6 TOR 2 COL 3
- 7 TOR 1 COL 3
- 8 TOR 1 COL 4
- 9 TOR 4 COL 8
- 10 TOR 2 COL 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Avalanche by 1.3, 70% to win. The Maple Leafs won by 3, a result we gave 30%. The final margin was 4.3 goals from ours; 6% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Maple Leafs win | 29.8% |
| Avalanche win | 70.2% |
| Middle 50%: Maple Leafs by 1 to Avalanche by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Maple Leafs by 3 to Avalanche by 5 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Maple Leafs by 4 to Avalanche by 6 | 95% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 1 | 22.4% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 3 | 18.5% |
| Exactly Maple Leafs by 1 | 14.9% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 2 | 12.5% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 4 | 10.0% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 10, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Maple Leafs win 35% of them, Avalanche 65%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maple Leafs by 3+ | 11.2% |
| Maple Leafs by 2 | 6.3% |
| Maple Leafs by 1 | 18.0% |
| Avalanche by 1 | 18.8% |
| Avalanche by 2 | 10.7% |
| Avalanche by 3+ | 35.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maple Leafs | 31 | 5 | 2.77 | +2.23 |
 Avalanche | 52 | 3 | 4.37 | −1.37 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 19:36 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Kirill Marchenko): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% COL |
| P1 1:01 | Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Jack Roslovic): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% COL |
| P2 19:09 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% COL |
| P2 13:26 | High sticking on the Avalanche (Jaden Schwartz): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TOR |
| P2 0:28 | Cross checking on the Avalanche (Cale Makar): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% TOR |
| P3 13:19 | Roughing on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Duhaime): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% COL |
| P3 8:40 | Tripping on the Avalanche (Nathan MacKinnon): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% TOR |
| P3 6:01 | Tripping on the Avalanche (Fedor Svechkov): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% TOR |
| P3 2:51 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Darren Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% COL |
When it happened
Avalanche’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 16:57 | Nick Blankenburg scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 12% chance | +14% TOR | – |
| 2 | P1 9:14 | Nathan MacKinnon scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 8% chance | +16% COL | – |
| 3 | P1 4:46 | Nathan MacKinnon scored on a wrist shot from 39 feetShooting · 5% chance | +17% COL | – |
| 4 | P2 13:07 | William Nylander scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 36% chance | +13% TOR | – |
| 5 | P2 7:35 | Brock Nelson scored on a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 17% chance | +18% COL | – |
| 6 | P2 3:13 | The game turned hereWilliam Nylander scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 9% chance | +21% TOR | – |
| 7 | P2 2:27 | Easton Cowan scored on a slap shot from 23 feetShooting · 9% chance | +22% TOR | – |
| 8 | P3 7:58 | Auston Matthews scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 16% chance | +11% TOR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maple Leafs 56% · Avalanche 44%
- Final margin
- Maple Leafs by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.8 for the Maple Leafs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maple Leafs by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Maple Leafs 35% · Avalanche 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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