2026-27 regular season · October 10, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Wild at Panthers, Oct 10, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Wild beat the Panthers 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Wild win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Wild.
The biggest swing (P1, 19:07 left): Matt Boldy scored on a snap shot from 42 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Wild.
Final
 Minnesota Wild | 4 |
|---|---|
 Florida Panthers | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Wild lucky · −51 Panthers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wild win 5, Panthers win 5.
- 1 MIN 5 FLA 1
- 2 MIN 3 FLA 0
- 3 MIN 3 FLA 1
- 4 MIN 3 FLA 2
- 5 MIN 4 FLA 3
- 6 MIN 1 FLA 2
- 7 MIN 2 FLA 3
- 8 MIN 2 FLA 4
- 9 MIN 4 FLA 7
- 10 MIN 1 FLA 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Panthers by 0.1, 52% to win. The Wild won by 3, a result we gave 48%. The final margin was 3.1 goals from ours; 16% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Wild win | 48.4% |
| Panthers win | 51.6% |
| Middle 50%: Wild by 2 to Panthers by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Wild by 4 to Panthers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Wild by 4 to Panthers by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Panthers by 1 | 21.1% |
| Exactly Wild by 1 | 20.1% |
| Exactly Panthers by 3 | 12.2% |
| Exactly Wild by 3 | 11.0% |
| Exactly Wild by 2 | 9.9% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 10, 12:07 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Wild win 49% of them, Panthers 51%. The line is what actually happened: Wild by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wild by 3+ | 20.8% |
| Wild by 2 | 9.0% |
| Wild by 1 | 19.5% |
| Panthers by 1 | 21.1% |
| Panthers by 2 | 9.1% |
| Panthers by 3+ | 20.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wild | 48 | 3 | 3.03 | −0.03 |
 Panthers | 45 | 1 | 3.32 | −2.32 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:08 | Holding on the Panthers (Dmitry Kulikov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P1 9:26 | Slashing on the Wild (Joel Eriksson Ek): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P2 6:30 | Holding on the Wild (Jonas Brodin): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P3 19:11 | Holding on the Panthers (Anton Lundell): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% MIN |
| P3 16:32 | Holding on the Wild (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P3 12:03 | Holding on the Wild (Blake Coleman): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% FLA |
| P3 8:18 | Roughing on the Wild (Matt Boldy): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% FLA |
| P3 5:41 | Interference on the Panthers (Sam Lafferty): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% MIN |
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 19:07 | Matt Boldy scored on a snap shot from 42 feetShooting · 5% chance | +15% MIN | – |
| 2 | P1 14:08 | Holding on the Panthers (Dmitry Kulikov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% MIN | – |
| 3 | P1 13:42 | Kirill Kaprizov scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 12% chance | +13% MIN | – |
| 4 | P1 9:26 | Slashing on the Wild (Joel Eriksson Ek): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% FLA | – |
| 5 | P2 17:42 | Matthew Tkachuk scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 13% chance | +14% FLA | – |
| 6 | P2 15:00 | Kirill Kaprizov scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 11% chance | +14% MIN | – |
| 7 | P3 8:11 | Sam Reinhart’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 36% chance | +5% MIN | – |
| 8 | P3 7:38 | Anton Lundell’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 30% chance | +4% MIN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wild 84% · Panthers 16%
- Final margin
- Wild by 3
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Wild
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wild by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Wild 49% · Panthers 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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