2026-27 regular season · October 5, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Jets at Penguins, Oct 5, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Penguins 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Jets.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 12:52 left): Adam Lowry scored on a backhand shot from 10 feet, worth 28 points of win probability to the Jets. The biggest single swing (P3, 10:58 left): Cole Perfetti scored on a snap shot from 36 feet.
Final
 Winnipeg Jets | 3 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Jets lucky · −54 Penguins
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 5, Penguins win 5.
- 1 WPG 5 PIT 1
- 2 WPG 4 PIT 1
- 3 WPG 4 PIT 2
- 4 WPG 4 PIT 3
- 5 WPG 2 PIT 1
- 6 WPG 1 PIT 2
- 7 WPG 3 PIT 4
- 8 WPG 3 PIT 5
- 9 WPG 3 PIT 6
- 10 WPG 0 PIT 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Penguins by 0.6, 60% to win. The Jets won by 1, a result we gave 40%. The final margin was 1.6 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jets win | 40.1% |
| Penguins win | 59.9% |
| Middle 50%: Jets by 1 to Penguins by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Jets by 4 to Penguins by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Jets by 4 to Penguins by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Penguins by 1 | 22.2% |
| Exactly Jets by 1 | 18.1% |
| Exactly Penguins by 3 | 14.9% |
| Exactly Penguins by 2 | 11.2% |
| Exactly Jets by 3 | 8.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Mon, Oct 5, 6:54 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Jets win 46% of them, Penguins 54%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 3+ | 15.9% |
| Jets by 2 | 9.3% |
| Jets by 1 | 21.1% |
| Penguins by 1 | 23.0% |
| Penguins by 2 | 10.2% |
| Penguins by 3+ | 20.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jets | 46 | 3 | 2.69 | +0.31 |
 Penguins | 47 | 2 | 2.79 | −0.79 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:59 | Hooking on the Jets (Viggo Björck): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P2 17:48 | Tripping on the Jets (Josh Morrissey): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P2 6:55 | Boarding on the Penguins (Blake Lizotte): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
When it happened
Penguins’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 17:48 | Tripping on the Jets (Josh Morrissey): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PIT | – |
| 2 | P2 10:33 | Ben Kindel scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 11% chance | +19% PIT | – |
| 3 | P2 6:08 | Mark Scheifele’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance | +6% PIT | – |
| 4 | P3 15:17 | Alex Iafallo scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 10% chance | +25% WPG | – |
| 5 | P3 12:52 | The game turned hereAdam Lowry scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 6% chance | +28% WPG | – |
| 6 | P3 11:07 | Declan Carlile scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 10% chance | +29% PIT | – |
| 7 | P3 10:58 | Cole Perfetti scored on a snap shot from 36 feetShooting · 6% chance | +30% WPG | – |
| 8 | P3 10:23 | Sidney Crosby’s snap shot from 23 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +5% WPG | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 76% · Penguins 24%
- Final margin
- Jets by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.3 for the Penguins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 46% · Penguins 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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