luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 11, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kraken at Capitals, Oct 11, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Capitals 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kraken win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 30 points of win probability to the Kraken.

The biggest swing (P3, 5:27 left): Jared McCann scored on a snap shot from 21 feet, worth 32 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final

Seattle Kraken 5
Washington Capitals 3

October 11, 2026 · Capital One Arena

Our prediction before puck drop: Capitals by 0.5

Luck index +51 Kraken lucky · −51 Capitals

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kraken win 5, Capitals win 5.

  1. 1 SEA 6 WSH 2
  2. 2 SEA 5 WSH 2
  3. 3 SEA 4 WSH 2
  4. 4 SEA 3 WSH 2
  5. 5 SEA 5 WSH 4
  6. 6 SEA 4 WSH 5
  7. 7 SEA 1 WSH 2
  8. 8 SEA 2 WSH 4
  9. 9 SEA 1 WSH 4
  10. 10 SEA 0 WSH 5

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Capitals by 0.5, 58% to win. The Kraken won by 2, a result we gave 42%. The final margin was 2.5 goals from ours; 40% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Kraken win42.1%
Capitals win57.9%
Middle 50%: Kraken by 1 to Capitals by 250%
Middle 90%: Kraken by 4 to Capitals by 490%
Middle 95%: Kraken by 4 to Capitals by 595%
Exactly Capitals by 122.0%
Exactly Kraken by 118.6%
Exactly Capitals by 314.3%
Exactly Capitals by 210.9%
Exactly Kraken by 39.1%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sun, Oct 11, 12:31 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kraken win 49% of them, Capitals 51%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kraken by 3+20.1%
Kraken by 29.8%
Kraken by 119.1%
Capitals by 120.4%
Capitals by 29.3%
Capitals by 3+21.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 2, without the luck Kraken by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kraken4053.09+1.91
Capitals4733.79−0.79

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 19:00 Holding on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P1 17:12 Tripping on the Kraken (Chandler Stephenson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P1 6:39 Interference on the Capitals (Dylan McIlrath): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P3 17:02 Tripping on the Capitals (Dylan Strome): 2 minutes on the power play +6% SEA

When it happened

Capitals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Capitals were ahead in it, below while the Kraken were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:54 Kaapo Kakko scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 22% chance +13% SEA –
2 P1 8:19 Jordan Kyrou scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 11% chance +16% WSH –
3 P1 3:13 Alex Ovechkin scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 21% chance +14% WSH –
4 P1 0:12 Jordan Eberle’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 11% chanceJordan Eberle’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 28% chance +7% WSH –
5 P1 0:11 Jordan Eberle scored on a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 24% chance +14% SEA –
6 P2 6:36 Frederick Gaudreau scored on a backhand shot from 4 feetShooting · 19% chance +18% SEA –
7 P3 19:14 Boone Jenner scored on a snap shot from 11 feetShooting · 18% chance +21% WSH –
8 P3 5:27 Jared McCann scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 16% chance +32% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kraken 75% · Capitals 25%

Final margin
Kraken by 2
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Kraken 49% · Capitals 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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