luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 7, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Oilers at Ducks, Oct 7, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Oilers beat the Ducks 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Oilers win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 32 points of win probability to the Oilers.

The biggest swing (P2, 5:48 left): Evan Bouchard scored on a slap shot from 43 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Oilers.

Final

Edmonton Oilers 5
Anaheim Ducks 2

October 7, 2026 · Honda Center

Our prediction before puck drop: even

Luck index +57 Oilers lucky · −57 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oilers win 4, Ducks win 6.

  1. 1 EDM 4 ANA 1
  2. 2 EDM 5 ANA 3
  3. 3 EDM 3 ANA 2
  4. 4 EDM 5 ANA 4
  5. 5 EDM 2 ANA 3
  6. 6 EDM 1 ANA 2
  7. 7 EDM 1 ANA 3
  8. 8 EDM 3 ANA 6
  9. 9 EDM 3 ANA 6
  10. 10 EDM 1 ANA 5

Our prediction before puck drop

We had it even, a coin flip. The Oilers won by 3. The final margin was 3.0 goals from ours; 16% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Oilers win49.4%
Ducks win50.6%
Middle 50%: Oilers by 2 to Ducks by 250%
Middle 90%: Oilers by 4 to Ducks by 490%
Middle 95%: Oilers by 5 to Ducks by 595%
Exactly Ducks by 121.0%
Exactly Oilers by 120.3%
Exactly Ducks by 311.9%
Exactly Oilers by 311.3%
Exactly Oilers by 210.1%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Wed, Oct 7, 1:40 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Oilers win 43% of them, Ducks 57%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oilers by 3+15.1%
Oilers by 28.6%
Oilers by 118.9%
Ducks by 119.8%
Ducks by 211.2%
Ducks by 3+26.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 goals to the Oilers: the final margin was Oilers by 3, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Oilers3452.65+2.35
Ducks5323.70−1.70

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:52 Hooking on the Oilers (Josh Samanski): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 13:33 Holding the stick on the Ducks (Cutter Gauthier): 2 minutes on the power play +3% EDM
P1 5:17 Holding on the Oilers (Jake Walman): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 3:02 Interference on the Ducks (Leo Carlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% EDM
P2 16:21 Tripping on the Oilers (Connor Murphy): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 15:05 Too many men on the ice on the Ducks (ANA): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P2 13:05 Delaying game puck over glass on the Oilers (Connor Murphy): 2 minutes on the power play +5% ANA
P3 16:32 Tripping on the Oilers (Josh Samanski): 2 minutes on the power play +1% ANA
P3 5:34 Roughing on the Ducks (Nikita Nesterenko): 2 minutes on the power play 0% EDM
P3 3:35 Hooking on the Oilers (Isaac Howard): 2 minutes on the power play 0% ANA
P3 2:50 Tripping on the Oilers (Connor Murphy): 2 minutes on the power play 0% ANA

When it happened

Ducks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Ducks were ahead in it, below while the Oilers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:49 Beckett Sennecke scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 29% chance +11% ANA –
2 P1 4:32 Beckett Sennecke scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 14% chance +12% ANA –
3 P2 19:49 Evan Bouchard scored on a slap shot from 67 feetShooting · 2% chance +14% EDM –
4 P2 13:30 Kasperi Kapanen scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 16% chance +17% EDM –
5 P2 8:49 Vasily Podkolzin’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 33% chance +7% ANA –
6 P2 5:48 Evan Bouchard scored on a slap shot from 43 feetShooting · 6% chance +22% EDM –
7 P2 3:11 Vasily Podkolzin scored on a snap shot from 13 feetShooting · 18% chance +13% EDM –
8 P2 0:52 Connor McDavid scored on a snap shot from 38 feetShooting · 8% chance +7% EDM –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oilers 50% · Ducks 50%

Final margin
Oilers by 3
Luck in goals
3.0 for the Oilers
Luck-adjusted margin
even
Replay with same day's form
Oilers 43% · Ducks 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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