2026-27 regular season · October 9, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Ducks at Jets, Oct 9, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Ducks beat the Jets 5–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ducks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Ducks.
The biggest swing (P1, 5:19 left): Judd Caulfield scored on a snap shot from 10 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Ducks.
Final
 Anaheim Ducks | 5 |
|---|---|
 Winnipeg Jets | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +47 Ducks lucky · −47 Jets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ducks win 5, Jets win 5.
- 1 ANA 4 WPG 1
- 2 ANA 4 WPG 1
- 3 ANA 4 WPG 2
- 4 ANA 4 WPG 3
- 5 ANA 2 WPG 1
- 6 ANA 2 WPG 3
- 7 ANA 2 WPG 3
- 8 ANA 2 WPG 3
- 9 ANA 1 WPG 3
- 10 ANA 0 WPG 3
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Jets by 0.2, 54% to win. The Ducks won by 4, a result we gave 46%. The final margin was 4.2 goals from ours; 5% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ducks win | 46.1% |
| Jets win | 53.9% |
| Middle 50%: Ducks by 2 to Jets by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Ducks by 4 to Jets by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Ducks by 4 to Jets by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Jets by 1 | 21.5% |
| Exactly Ducks by 1 | 19.6% |
| Exactly Jets by 3 | 12.9% |
| Exactly Ducks by 3 | 10.3% |
| Exactly Jets by 2 | 10.3% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Fri, Oct 9, 1:19 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Ducks win 53% of them, Jets 47%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ducks by 3+ | 17.2% |
| Ducks by 2 | 10.9% |
| Ducks by 1 | 25.0% |
| Jets by 1 | 24.9% |
| Jets by 2 | 9.8% |
| Jets by 3+ | 12.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ducks | 28 | 4 | 2.06 | +1.94 |
 Jets | 32 | 1 | 2.54 | −1.54 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 0:14 | Unsportsmanlike conduct on the Ducks (Travis Mitchell): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P2 14:06 | Tripping on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% WPG |
| P2 6:51 | Holding on the Ducks (Ryan Poehling): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% WPG |
| P2 2:42 | Tripping on the Ducks (Ryan Poehling): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% WPG |
| P3 12:58 | Holding on the Jets (Brad Lambert): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% ANA |
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 5:19 | Judd Caulfield scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 20% chance | +14% ANA | – |
| 2 | P1 0:14 | Unsportsmanlike conduct on the Ducks (Travis Mitchell): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% WPG | – |
| 3 | P2 18:52 | Gabriel Vilardi’s snap shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance | +4% ANA | – |
| 4 | P2 14:40 | Tim Washe scored on a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 18% chance | +13% ANA | – |
| 5 | P2 13:27 | Gabriel Vilardi missed the net with a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 35% chance | +6% ANA | – |
| 6 | P2 5:44 | Gabriel Vilardi’s snap shot from 23 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance | +3% ANA | – |
| 7 | P3 15:35 | Sam Colangelo scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 23% chance | +5% ANA | – |
| 8 | P3 9:24 | Kyle Connor scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 15% chance | +3% WPG | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ducks 85% · Jets 15%
- Final margin
- Ducks by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for the Ducks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ducks by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Ducks 53% · Jets 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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