2026-27 regular season · October 9, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Kraken at Red Wings, Oct 9, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kraken beat the Red Wings 6–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Kraken win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 41 points of win probability to the Kraken.
The biggest swing (P2, 16:00 left): William Wallinder scored on a snap shot from 60 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
Final
 Seattle Kraken | 6 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Red Wings | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Kraken lucky · −54 Red Wings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kraken win 5, Red Wings win 5.
- 1 SEA 4 DET 0
- 2 SEA 6 DET 3
- 3 SEA 3 DET 1
- 4 SEA 5 DET 4
- 5 SEA 5 DET 4
- 6 SEA 3 DET 4
- 7 SEA 2 DET 3
- 8 SEA 5 DET 8
- 9 SEA 3 DET 6
- 10 SEA 2 DET 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Red Wings by 0.3, 55% to win. The Kraken won by 3, a result we gave 45%. The final margin was 3.3 goals from ours; 16% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kraken win | 45.4% |
| Red Wings win | 54.6% |
| Middle 50%: Kraken by 2 to Red Wings by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Kraken by 4 to Red Wings by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Kraken by 4 to Red Wings by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 1 | 21.6% |
| Exactly Kraken by 1 | 19.4% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 3 | 13.2% |
| Exactly Red Wings by 2 | 10.4% |
| Exactly Kraken by 3 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Fri, Oct 9, 1:19 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Kraken win 46% of them, Red Wings 54%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kraken by 3+ | 18.7% |
| Kraken by 2 | 9.2% |
| Kraken by 1 | 17.8% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 18.7% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 10.2% |
| Red Wings by 3+ | 25.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraken | 40 | 6 | 3.33 | +2.67 |
 Red Wings | 57 | 3 | 3.80 | −0.80 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 11:27 | Slashing on the Kraken (Jordan Eberle): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P1 2:30 | Slashing on the Red Wings (Michael Brandsegg-Nygård): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SEA |
| P1 2:11 | Tripping on the Kraken (Chandler Stephenson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 8:07 | Tripping on the Kraken (Ben Meyers): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% DET |
| P3 9:36 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Keegan Kolesar): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% SEA |
| P3 8:35 | High sticking on the Red Wings (Ben Chiarot): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% SEA |
When it happened
Red Wings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 10:41 | Viktor Arvidsson scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 32% chance | +11% DET | – |
| 2 | P1 5:08 | Berkly Catton scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 10% chance | +16% SEA | – |
| 3 | P1 2:11 | Tripping on the Kraken (Chandler Stephenson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DET | – |
| 4 | P2 16:00 | William Wallinder scored on a snap shot from 60 feetShooting · 2% chance | +19% DET | – |
| 5 | P2 15:21 | Frederick Gaudreau scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 7% chance | +18% SEA | – |
| 6 | P2 13:01 | Mackie Samoskevich scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 19% chance | +17% SEA | – |
| 7 | P2 12:16 | Frederick Gaudreau scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 5% chance | +15% SEA | – |
| 8 | P2 5:55 | Ben Meyers scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 8% chance | +8% SEA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kraken 59% · Red Wings 41%
- Final margin
- Kraken by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.6 for the Kraken
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kraken by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Kraken 46% · Red Wings 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 2, 2026-27
- Mammoth at Bruins Oct 8, 2026 · BOS 6–1 · replay 27% for the winner
- Predators at Canadiens Oct 8, 2026 · NSH 5–2 · replay 34% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Avalanche Oct 10, 2026 · TOR 6–3 · replay 35% for the winner
- Sharks at Blues Oct 8, 2026 · SJS 3–2 OT · replay 39% for the winner
- Oilers at Ducks Oct 7, 2026 · EDM 5–2 · replay 43% for the winner
- Senators at Bruins Oct 5, 2026 · OTT 4–1 · replay 43% for the winner
- Stars at Sabres Oct 8, 2026 · DAL 4–0 · replay 44% for the winner
- Flyers at Senators Oct 8, 2026 · OTT 2–1 · replay 46% for the winner
- Avalanche at Flames Oct 8, 2026 · COL 7–3 · replay 49% for the winner
- Kraken at Capitals Oct 11, 2026 · SEA 5–3 · replay 49% for the winner
- Wild at Panthers Oct 10, 2026 · MIN 4–1 · replay 49% for the winner
- Lightning at Islanders Oct 10, 2026 · TBL 5–3 · replay 50% for the winner