2026-27 regular season · October 7, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Avalanche at Jets, Oct 7, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Avalanche 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Avalanche: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 32 points of win probability to the Jets.
The biggest swing (P3, 1:00 left): Kyle Connor scored on a wrist shot from 24 feet, worth 40 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 Colorado Avalanche | 2 |
|---|---|
 Winnipeg Jets | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Jets very lucky · −61 Avalanche
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Avalanche win 6, Jets win 4.
- 1 COL 6 WPG 2
- 2 COL 3 WPG 0
- 3 COL 6 WPG 3
- 4 COL 3 WPG 1
- 5 COL 3 WPG 2
- 6 COL 2 WPG 1
- 7 COL 3 WPG 4
- 8 COL 3 WPG 4
- 9 COL 3 WPG 5
- 10 COL 0 WPG 3
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Avalanche by 0.4, 57% to win. The Jets won by 1, a result we gave 43%. The final margin was 1.4 goals from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Avalanche win | 57.0% |
| Jets win | 43.0% |
| Middle 50%: Avalanche by 2 to Jets by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Avalanche by 4 to Jets by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Avalanche by 5 to Jets by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 1 | 21.4% |
| Exactly Jets by 1 | 19.3% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 3 | 13.7% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 2 | 11.4% |
| Exactly Jets by 3 | 9.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Wed, Oct 7, 1:40 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Avalanche win 61% of them, Jets 39%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Avalanche by 3+ | 27.3% |
| Avalanche by 2 | 12.1% |
| Avalanche by 1 | 21.2% |
| Jets by 1 | 21.3% |
| Jets by 2 | 7.8% |
| Jets by 3+ | 10.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Avalanche | 56 | 2 | 3.02 | −1.02 |
 Jets | 36 | 3 | 2.11 | +0.89 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:34 | Hooking on the Jets (Dylan Samberg): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% COL |
| P1 3:21 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Avalanche (Fedor Svechkov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P3 11:41 | Cross checking on the Avalanche (Brock Nelson): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% WPG |
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 17:09 | Jaden Schwartz scored on a snap shot from 35 feetShooting · 8% chance | +18% COL | – |
| 2 | P2 15:59 | Kyle Connor scored on a tip from 12 feetShooting · 8% chance | +18% WPG | – |
| 3 | P2 4:51 | Kyle Connor’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +5% COL | – |
| 4 | P2 1:44 | Cole Perfetti scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 12% chance | +21% WPG | – |
| 5 | P3 11:41 | Cross checking on the Avalanche (Brock Nelson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% WPG | – |
| 6 | P3 7:25 | Fedor Svechkov scored on a tip from 4 feetShooting · 19% chance | +28% COL | – |
| 7 | P3 5:48 | Gabriel Landeskog’s slap shot from 30 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance | +4% WPG | – |
| 8 | P3 1:00 | Kyle Connor scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 10% chance | +40% WPG | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Avalanche 66% · Jets 34%
- Final margin
- Jets by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.4 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Avalanche by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Avalanche 61% · Jets 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 2, 2026-27
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