2026-27 regular season · October 6, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Golden Knights at Kraken, Oct 6, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Golden Knights beat the Kraken 6–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 6:58 left): Victor Olofsson scored on a deflected shot from 8 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Golden Knights.
Final
 Vegas Golden Knights | 6 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Kraken | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +33 Golden Knights lucky · −33 Kraken
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Golden Knights win 7, Kraken win 3.
- 1 VGK 8 SEA 1
- 2 VGK 6 SEA 2
- 3 VGK 5 SEA 1
- 4 VGK 5 SEA 2
- 5 VGK 4 SEA 2
- 6 VGK 6 SEA 4
- 7 VGK 3 SEA 2
- 8 VGK 3 SEA 4
- 9 VGK 4 SEA 5
- 10 VGK 1 SEA 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Golden Knights by 0.4, 56% to win. The Golden Knights won by 4: the pick was right. The final margin was 3.6 goals from ours; 10% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Golden Knights win | 56.0% |
| Kraken win | 44.0% |
| Middle 50%: Golden Knights by 2 to Kraken by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Golden Knights by 4 to Kraken by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Golden Knights by 5 to Kraken by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Golden Knights by 1 | 21.3% |
| Exactly Kraken by 1 | 19.6% |
| Exactly Golden Knights by 3 | 13.4% |
| Exactly Golden Knights by 2 | 11.3% |
| Exactly Kraken by 3 | 9.8% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 6, 5:12 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Golden Knights win 67% of them, Kraken 33%. The line is what actually happened: Golden Knights by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Golden Knights by 3+ | 37.7% |
| Golden Knights by 2 | 11.6% |
| Golden Knights by 1 | 17.6% |
| Kraken by 1 | 18.0% |
| Kraken by 2 | 6.4% |
| Kraken by 3+ | 8.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Golden Knights | 44 | 6 | 3.81 | +2.19 |
 Kraken | 35 | 2 | 2.44 | −0.44 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 19:45 | Boarding on the Golden Knights (Marc Gatcomb): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SEA |
| P1 6:58 | Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Kraken (SEA): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VGK |
| P1 4:11 | Interference on the Kraken (Brandon Montour): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VGK |
| P2 19:43 | Holding on the Golden Knights (Nic Dowd): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% SEA |
| P2 5:43 | Holding the stick on the Golden Knights (Brett Howden): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% SEA |
| P3 12:22 | Slashing on the Kraken (Chandler Stephenson): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% VGK |
| P3 11:57 | Boarding on the Kraken (Ben Meyers): 5 minutes on the power play | 0% VGK |
| P3 7:06 | Roughing on the Golden Knights (Rasmus Andersson): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% SEA |
| P3 6:06 | Roughing on the Golden Knights (Jeremy Lauzon): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% SEA |
When it happened
Kraken’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 19:45 | Boarding on the Golden Knights (Marc Gatcomb): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% SEA | – |
| 2 | P1 9:33 | Shane Wright’s bat shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance | +4% VGK | – |
| 3 | P1 6:58 | Victor Olofsson scored on a deflected shot from 8 feetShooting · 11% chanceDelaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Kraken (SEA): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +20% VGK | – |
| 4 | P1 4:11 | Interference on the Kraken (Brandon Montour): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% VGK | – |
| 5 | P1 4:02 | Tomas Hertl scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 24% chance | +12% VGK | – |
| 6 | P2 19:43 | Holding on the Golden Knights (Nic Dowd): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% SEA | – |
| 7 | P2 19:12 | Bobby McMann missed the net with a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 21% chance | +3% VGK | – |
| 8 | P2 18:17 | Mark Stone scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 13% chance | +9% VGK | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Golden Knights 83% · Kraken 17%
- Final margin
- Golden Knights by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for the Golden Knights
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Golden Knights by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Golden Knights 67% · Kraken 33% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 2, 2026-27
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