2026-27 regular season · October 10, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Ducks at Flames, Oct 10, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Ducks beat the Flames 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ducks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Ducks.
The biggest swing (P3, 14:25 left): Ryan Poehling scored on a snap shot from 29 feet, worth 26 points of win probability to the Ducks.
Final
 Anaheim Ducks | 4 |
|---|---|
 Calgary Flames | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Ducks lucky · −49 Flames
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ducks win 5, Flames win 5.
- 1 ANA 3 CGY 0
- 2 ANA 4 CGY 1
- 3 ANA 4 CGY 2
- 4 ANA 2 CGY 1
- 5 ANA 3 CGY 2
- 6 ANA 1 CGY 2
- 7 ANA 3 CGY 4
- 8 ANA 2 CGY 4
- 9 ANA 0 CGY 3
- 10 ANA 0 CGY 3
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Ducks by 0.3, 56% to win. The Ducks won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 1.7 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ducks win | 55.6% |
| Flames win | 44.4% |
| Middle 50%: Ducks by 2 to Flames by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Ducks by 4 to Flames by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Ducks by 5 to Flames by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Ducks by 1 | 21.3% |
| Exactly Flames by 1 | 19.6% |
| Exactly Ducks by 3 | 13.3% |
| Exactly Ducks by 2 | 11.2% |
| Exactly Flames by 3 | 9.9% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 10, 7:49 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Ducks win 51% of them, Flames 49%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ducks by 3+ | 17.5% |
| Ducks by 2 | 11.2% |
| Ducks by 1 | 22.7% |
| Flames by 1 | 22.0% |
| Flames by 2 | 10.4% |
| Flames by 3+ | 16.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ducks | 38 | 4 | 2.44 | +1.56 |
 Flames | 44 | 2 | 2.79 | −0.79 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:08 | Cross checking on the Flames (Zayne Parekh): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% ANA |
| P3 18:21 | Hooking on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% CGY |
| P3 15:26 | Tripping on the Ducks (Tim Washe): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% CGY |
| P3 12:39 | Cross checking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CGY |
| P3 6:27 | Holding on the Flames (Jonathan Castagna): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% ANA |
When it happened
Flames’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 9:58 | Jackson LaCombe scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 23% chance | +13% ANA | – |
| 2 | P1 4:57 | Morgan Frost scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 18% chance | +15% CGY | – |
| 3 | P1 0:45 | Frank Vatrano scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 14% chance | +16% ANA | – |
| 4 | P2 2:06 | Aydar Suniev scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 3% chance | +24% CGY | – |
| 5 | P3 18:21 | Hooking on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% CGY | – |
| 6 | P3 15:26 | Tripping on the Ducks (Tim Washe): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% CGY | – |
| 7 | P3 14:25 | Ryan Poehling scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 11% chance | +26% ANA | – |
| 8 | P3 2:57 | Nikita Nesterenko scored on a poke shot from 5 feetShooting · 8% chance | +7% ANA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ducks 74% · Flames 26%
- Final margin
- Ducks by 2
- Luck in goals
- 0.9 for the Ducks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ducks by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Ducks 51% · Flames 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 2, 2026-27
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