luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 31, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Canucks, Oct 31, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Maple Leafs beat the Canucks 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Maple Leafs win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 14 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

The biggest swing (P2, 16:13 left): Auston Matthews scored on a snap shot from 25 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Vancouver Canucks 2

October 31, 2026 · Rogers Arena

Our prediction before puck drop: Maple Leafs by 0.2

Luck index +43 Maple Leafs lucky · −43 Canucks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 6, Canucks win 4.

  1. 1 TOR 6 VAN 1
  2. 2 TOR 4 VAN 1
  3. 3 TOR 3 VAN 0
  4. 4 TOR 5 VAN 3
  5. 5 TOR 5 VAN 4
  6. 6 TOR 4 VAN 3
  7. 7 TOR 0 VAN 1
  8. 8 TOR 2 VAN 3
  9. 9 TOR 2 VAN 4
  10. 10 TOR 3 VAN 6

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Maple Leafs by 0.2, 54% to win. The Maple Leafs won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 1.8 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Maple Leafs win53.8%
Canucks win46.2%
Middle 50%: Maple Leafs by 2 to Canucks by 250%
Middle 90%: Maple Leafs by 4 to Canucks by 490%
Middle 95%: Maple Leafs by 5 to Canucks by 495%
Exactly Maple Leafs by 121.0%
Exactly Canucks by 120.1%
Exactly Maple Leafs by 312.7%
Exactly Maple Leafs by 210.9%
Exactly Canucks by 310.5%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 31, 11:57 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 57% of them, Canucks 43%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+26.5%
Maple Leafs by 211.1%
Maple Leafs by 119.6%
Canucks by 120.4%
Canucks by 28.7%
Canucks by 3+13.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Maple Leafs by 2, without the luck Maple Leafs by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs3933.20−0.20
Canucks3922.53−0.53

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:22 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P1 9:58 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Brandon Duhaime): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P1 8:59 Hooking on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 8:07 Tripping on the Canucks (Jamie Oleksiak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 5:37 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (William Nylander): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VAN
P3 9:59 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Morgan Rielly): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VAN

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:37 William Nylander scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 14% chance +14% TOR –
2 P1 9:30 Brock Boeser scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 21% chance +14% VAN –
3 P2 16:13 Auston Matthews scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 4% chance +19% TOR –
4 P2 7:26 Zack MacEwen scored on a slap shot from 55 feetShooting · 2% chance +16% TOR –
5 P3 10:33 Max Sasson scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 16% chance +12% VAN –
6 P3 9:59 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Morgan Rielly): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% VAN –
7 P3 8:50 Jake DeBrusk’s backhand shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance +5% TOR –
8 P3 8:19 Paul Cotter missed the net with a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 15% chance +5% TOR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 82% · Canucks 18%

Final margin
Maple Leafs by 2
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Maple Leafs by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 57% · Canucks 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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