2026-27 regular season · October 30, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Kraken at Flames, Oct 30, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Flames beat the Kraken 6–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 33 points of win probability to the Flames.
The biggest swing (P2, 14:15 left): Aydar Suniev scored on a snap shot from 19 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Flames.
Final
 Seattle Kraken | 2 |
|---|---|
 Calgary Flames | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Flames lucky · −49 Kraken
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kraken win 5, Flames win 5.
- 1 SEA 6 CGY 3
- 2 SEA 4 CGY 1
- 3 SEA 3 CGY 1
- 4 SEA 2 CGY 1
- 5 SEA 2 CGY 1
- 6 SEA 3 CGY 4
- 7 SEA 2 CGY 3
- 8 SEA 1 CGY 3
- 9 SEA 2 CGY 5
- 10 SEA 1 CGY 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Kraken by 0.2, 53% to win. The Flames won by 4, a result we gave 47%. The final margin was 4.2 goals from ours; 5% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kraken win | 52.6% |
| Flames win | 47.4% |
| Middle 50%: Kraken by 2 to Flames by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Kraken by 4 to Flames by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Kraken by 5 to Flames by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Kraken by 1 | 20.8% |
| Exactly Flames by 1 | 20.3% |
| Exactly Kraken by 3 | 12.3% |
| Exactly Flames by 3 | 10.9% |
| Exactly Kraken by 2 | 10.7% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Fri, Oct 30, 12:53 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kraken win 49% of them, Flames 51%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kraken by 3+ | 16.2% |
| Kraken by 2 | 9.3% |
| Kraken by 1 | 23.9% |
| Flames by 1 | 22.6% |
| Flames by 2 | 11.2% |
| Flames by 3+ | 16.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraken | 32 | 2 | 2.06 | −0.06 |
 Flames | 39 | 6 | 2.02 | +3.98 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:14 | Roughing on the Kraken (Curtis Douglas): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P1 8:23 | High sticking on the Flames (Aydar Suniev): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SEA |
| P2 12:34 | Tripping on the Kraken (Berkly Catton): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CGY |
| P2 8:56 | Hooking on the Flames (Jonathan Castagna): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% SEA |
| P2 2:36 | Slashing on the Flames (Zayne Parekh): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% SEA |
| P3 14:41 | Interference on the Flames (Kevin Bahl): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% SEA |
When it happened
Flames’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 17:28 | Morgan Frost scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 10% chance | +14% CGY | – |
| 2 | P1 8:26 | Frederick Gaudreau scored on a backhand shot from 2 feetShooting · 41% chance | +10% SEA | – |
| 3 | P2 14:15 | Aydar Suniev scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 13% chance | +17% CGY | – |
| 4 | P2 12:34 | Tripping on the Kraken (Berkly Catton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CGY | – |
| 5 | P2 11:17 | Matvei Gridin scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance | +13% CGY | – |
| 6 | P2 9:20 | Joel Farabee scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 10% chance | +7% CGY | – |
| 7 | P2 1:45 | Mackie Samoskevich scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 8% chance | +6% SEA | – |
| 8 | P3 19:21 | Matt Coronato scored on a wrist shot from 41 feetShooting · 3% chance | +6% CGY | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kraken 30% · Flames 70%
- Final margin
- Flames by 4
- Luck in goals
- 3.0 for the Flames
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Flames by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Kraken 49% · Flames 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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