luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 28, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Kraken, Oct 28, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Kraken beat the Maple Leafs 5–4, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Maple Leafs had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 36 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

The biggest swing (P3, 0:33 left): Brandon Montour scored on a slap shot from 37 feet, worth 43 points of win probability to the Kraken.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Seattle Kraken 5

October 28, 2026 · Climate Pledge Arena

Our prediction before puck drop: Kraken by 0.3

Luck index +40 Kraken lucky · −40 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 4, Kraken win 6.

  1. 1 TOR 4 SEA 1
  2. 2 TOR 5 SEA 3
  3. 3 TOR 4 SEA 3
  4. 4 TOR 2 SEA 1
  5. 5 TOR 1 SEA 2
  6. 6 TOR 2 SEA 3
  7. 7 TOR 1 SEA 3
  8. 8 TOR 1 SEA 4
  9. 9 TOR 1 SEA 4
  10. 10 TOR 0 SEA 4

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Kraken by 0.3, 56% to win. The Kraken won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.7 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Maple Leafs win44.2%
Kraken win55.8%
Middle 50%: Maple Leafs by 2 to Kraken by 250%
Middle 90%: Maple Leafs by 4 to Kraken by 490%
Middle 95%: Maple Leafs by 4 to Kraken by 595%
Exactly Kraken by 121.8%
Exactly Maple Leafs by 119.1%
Exactly Kraken by 313.6%
Exactly Kraken by 210.6%
Exactly Maple Leafs by 39.7%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Wed, Oct 28, 6:49 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 40% of them, Kraken 60%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+10.2%
Maple Leafs by 27.6%
Maple Leafs by 121.9%
Kraken by 123.0%
Kraken by 212.3%
Kraken by 3+24.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 goals to the Kraken: the final margin was Kraken by 1, without the luck Kraken by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs4042.13+1.87
Kraken3252.42+2.58

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 2:24 Holding the stick on the Kraken (Berkly Catton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 18:41 Hooking on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 17:42 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Vinni Lettieri): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 15:11 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Easton Cowan): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 12:17 High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Gavin McKenna): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 4:15 Delaying game puck over glass on the Maple Leafs (Zack MacEwen): 2 minutes on the power play +3% SEA
P3 13:57 Cross checking on the Maple Leafs (Dakota Mermis): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SEA
P3 13:36 Holding on the Kraken (Jordan Eberle): 2 minutes on the power play +2% TOR

When it happened

Kraken’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kraken were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:01 Berkly Catton scored on a backhand shot from 14 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% SEA –
2 P1 0:46 Gavin McKenna scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 12% chance +16% TOR –
3 P2 19:44 Josh Mahura scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 9% chance +17% SEA –
4 P2 18:14 Gavin McKenna scored on a slap shot from 14 feetShooting · 20% chance +15% TOR –
5 P2 16:27 Chandler Stephenson scored on a wrist shot from 48 feetShooting · 2% chance +19% SEA –
6 P2 9:02 Ryker Evans scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 5% chance +14% SEA –
7 P3 1:30 Auston Matthews scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 7% chance +40% TOR –
8 P3 0:33 Brandon Montour scored on a slap shot from 37 feetShooting · 6% chance +43% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 45% · Kraken 55%

Final margin
Kraken by 1
Luck in goals
0.5 for the Kraken
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 40% · Kraken 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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