2026-27 regular season · November 1, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Senators at Ducks, Nov 1, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Ducks beat the Senators 6–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Ducks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 43 points of win probability to the Ducks.
The biggest swing (P3, 18:10 left): Cutter Gauthier scored on a wrist shot from 18 feet, worth 24 points of win probability to the Ducks.
Final
 Ottawa Senators | 3 |
|---|---|
 Anaheim Ducks | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 Ducks lucky · −50 Senators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Senators win 5, Ducks win 5.
- 1 OTT 4 ANA 0
- 2 OTT 4 ANA 1
- 3 OTT 5 ANA 3
- 4 OTT 5 ANA 4
- 5 OTT 7 ANA 6
- 6 OTT 4 ANA 5
- 7 OTT 3 ANA 4
- 8 OTT 2 ANA 4
- 9 OTT 1 ANA 4
- 10 OTT 1 ANA 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Senators by 0.1, 52% to win. The Ducks won by 3, a result we gave 48%. The final margin was 3.1 goals from ours; 16% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Senators win | 52.1% |
| Ducks win | 47.9% |
| Middle 50%: Senators by 2 to Ducks by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Senators by 4 to Ducks by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Senators by 5 to Ducks by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Senators by 1 | 20.7% |
| Exactly Ducks by 1 | 20.4% |
| Exactly Senators by 3 | 12.2% |
| Exactly Ducks by 3 | 11.0% |
| Exactly Senators by 2 | 10.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sun, Nov 1, 3:47 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Senators win 50% of them, Ducks 50%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Senators by 3+ | 20.4% |
| Senators by 2 | 9.9% |
| Senators by 1 | 20.2% |
| Ducks by 1 | 20.2% |
| Ducks by 2 | 10.1% |
| Ducks by 3+ | 19.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Senators | 32 | 3 | 2.84 | +0.16 |
 Ducks | 42 | 6 | 2.79 | +3.21 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:56 | Holding on the Ducks (Drew Helleson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 8:35 | Hooking on the Ducks (Noah Warren): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 6:53 | Tripping on the Ducks (Jackson LaCombe): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
| P2 2:39 | Cross checking on the Senators (Tim Stützle): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% ANA |
| P2 0:07 | Tripping on the Senators (Nikolas Matinpalo): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% ANA |
| P3 18:36 | Tripping on the Senators (Jake Sanderson): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% ANA |
| P3 9:02 | Interference on the Senators (Dylan Cozens): 3 minutes on the power play | +3% ANA |
When it happened
Ducks’ chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:00 | Philip Tomasino scored on a snap shot from 3 feetShooting · 54% chance | +8% OTT | – |
| 2 | P1 12:58 | Claude Giroux scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 8% chance | +13% OTT | – |
| 3 | P1 2:23 | Michael Amadio scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 23% chance | +8% OTT | – |
| 4 | P2 18:25 | Cutter Gauthier scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 7% chance | +9% ANA | – |
| 5 | P2 16:27 | Judd Caulfield scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 15% chance | +14% ANA | – |
| 6 | P2 0:42 | Judd Caulfield scored on a tip from 8 feetShooting · 13% chance | +22% ANA | – |
| 7 | P3 18:10 | Cutter Gauthier scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 7% chance | +24% ANA | – |
| 8 | P3 17:34 | Cutter Gauthier scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 16% chance | +12% ANA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Senators 33% · Ducks 67%
- Final margin
- Ducks by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for the Ducks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ducks by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Senators 50% · Ducks 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 5, 2026-27
- Canadiens at Blues Oct 27, 2026 · MTL 2–0 · replay 33% for the winner
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- Kings at Blackhawks Oct 27, 2026 · CHI 2–1 · replay 52% for the winner
- Penguins at Canadiens Oct 31, 2026 · MTL 5–4 · replay 52% for the winner
- Oilers at Islanders Oct 31, 2026 · EDM 4–0 · replay 53% for the winner
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