2026-27 regular season · November 1, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Oilers at Rangers, Nov 1, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Oilers beat the Rangers 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Oilers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 18 points of win probability to the Oilers.
The biggest swing (P1, 19:10 left): Connor McDavid scored on a wrist shot from 10 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Oilers.
Final
 Edmonton Oilers | 4 |
|---|---|
 New York Rangers | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +40 Oilers lucky · −40 Rangers
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oilers win 6, Rangers win 4.
- 1 EDM 5 NYR 0
- 2 EDM 4 NYR 1
- 3 EDM 5 NYR 2
- 4 EDM 5 NYR 3
- 5 EDM 3 NYR 2
- 6 EDM 3 NYR 2
- 7 EDM 3 NYR 4
- 8 EDM 1 NYR 2
- 9 EDM 2 NYR 4
- 10 EDM 2 NYR 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had it even, a coin flip. The Oilers won by 3. The final margin was 3.0 goals from ours; 27% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Oilers win | 50.5% |
| Rangers win | 49.5% |
| Middle 50%: Oilers by 2 to Rangers by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Oilers by 4 to Rangers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Oilers by 5 to Rangers by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Rangers by 1 | 20.8% |
| Exactly Oilers by 1 | 20.5% |
| Exactly Oilers by 3 | 11.7% |
| Exactly Rangers by 3 | 11.5% |
| Exactly Oilers by 2 | 10.3% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sun, Nov 1, 3:47 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Oilers win 60% of them, Rangers 40%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oilers by 3+ | 26.1% |
| Oilers by 2 | 11.8% |
| Oilers by 1 | 21.6% |
| Rangers by 1 | 21.7% |
| Rangers by 2 | 8.3% |
| Rangers by 3+ | 10.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oilers | 35 | 3 | 2.70 | +0.30 |
 Rangers | 41 | 1 | 2.38 | −1.38 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 7:35 | Tripping on the Oilers (Kasperi Kapanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NYR |
| P1 6:11 | Tripping on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% EDM |
| P2 11:20 | Holding on the Rangers (Noah Laba): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% EDM |
| P3 14:35 | Interference on the Oilers (Connor Murphy): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% NYR |
| P3 11:46 | Hooking on the Rangers (Tye Kartye): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% EDM |
| P3 11:14 | Hooking on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% EDM |
When it happened
Rangers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 19:10 | Connor McDavid scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 13% chance | +14% EDM | – |
| 2 | P1 13:41 | Colton Dach scored on a wrist shot from 26 feetShooting · 7% chance | +14% EDM | – |
| 3 | P1 7:35 | Tripping on the Oilers (Kasperi Kapanen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% NYR | – |
| 4 | P1 6:11 | Tripping on the Rangers (Will Cuylle): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% EDM | – |
| 5 | P2 11:20 | Holding on the Rangers (Noah Laba): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% EDM | – |
| 6 | P2 10:11 | Evan Bouchard scored on a slap shot from 47 feetShooting · 6% chance | +9% EDM | – |
| 7 | P2 6:38 | Pavel Dorofeyev scored on a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 28% chance | +6% NYR | – |
| 8 | P3 13:13 | Alexis Lafrenière’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 35% chance | +5% EDM | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oilers 79% · Rangers 21%
- Final margin
- Oilers by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.9 for the Oilers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oilers by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Oilers 60% · Rangers 40% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 5, 2026-27
- Blue Jackets at Flyers Oct 27, 2026 · CBJ 4–3 OT · replay 23% for the winner
- Wild at Capitals Nov 1, 2026 · MIN 5–1 · replay 40% for the winner
- Red Wings at Oilers Oct 26, 2026 · DET 4–3 SO · replay 41% for the winner
- Islanders at Predators Oct 27, 2026 · NYI 4–3 SO · replay 44% for the winner
- Mammoth at Flyers Nov 1, 2026 · PHI 6–3 · replay 45% for the winner
- Sabres at Kings Oct 31, 2026 · BUF 3–2 · replay 46% for the winner
- Blue Jackets at Stars Oct 31, 2026 · DAL 3–1 · replay 48% for the winner
- Senators at Ducks Nov 1, 2026 · ANA 6–3 · replay 50% for the winner
- Kraken at Flames Oct 30, 2026 · CGY 6–2 · replay 51% for the winner
- Sabres at Ducks Oct 29, 2026 · BUF 7–6 · replay 51% for the winner
- Capitals at Predators Oct 29, 2026 · WSH 4–3 · replay 52% for the winner
- Kings at Blackhawks Oct 27, 2026 · CHI 2–1 · replay 52% for the winner