luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 13, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Mammoth, Oct 13, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Maple Leafs 5–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Mammoth win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 24 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

The biggest swing (P1, 5:05 left): Daniil But scored on a snap shot from 22 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Utah Mammoth 5

October 13, 2026 · Delta Center

Our prediction before puck drop: Mammoth by 0.8

Luck index +47 Mammoth lucky · −47 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 5, Mammoth win 5.

  1. 1 TOR 4 UTA 1
  2. 2 TOR 4 UTA 1
  3. 3 TOR 3 UTA 1
  4. 4 TOR 5 UTA 4
  5. 5 TOR 2 UTA 1
  6. 6 TOR 2 UTA 3
  7. 7 TOR 1 UTA 2
  8. 8 TOR 2 UTA 4
  9. 9 TOR 0 UTA 3
  10. 10 TOR 1 UTA 5

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Mammoth by 0.8, 64% to win. The Mammoth won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.2 goals from ours; 78% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Maple Leafs win36.2%
Mammoth win63.8%
Middle 50%: Maple Leafs by 1 to Mammoth by 350%
Middle 90%: Maple Leafs by 3 to Mammoth by 590%
Middle 95%: Maple Leafs by 4 to Mammoth by 595%
Exactly Mammoth by 122.5%
Exactly Maple Leafs by 117.0%
Exactly Mammoth by 316.3%
Exactly Mammoth by 211.8%
Exactly Mammoth by 48.2%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 13, 1:55 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 47% of them, Mammoth 53%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+15.1%
Maple Leafs by 29.4%
Maple Leafs by 122.0%
Mammoth by 123.4%
Mammoth by 211.0%
Mammoth by 3+19.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Mammoth by 1, without the luck Mammoth by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs4042.84+1.16
Mammoth4152.69+2.31

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:09 Slashing on the Mammoth (Dylan Guenther): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 11:45 Holding on the Maple Leafs (Darren Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 16:24 Too many men on the ice on the Mammoth (UTA): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TOR
P2 13:13 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Gavin McKenna): 2 minutes on the power play +3% UTA
P2 8:10 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Teddy Blueger): 2 minutes on the power play +3% UTA
P2 7:59 Interference on the Mammoth (Dylan Guenther): 2 minutes on the power play +3% TOR
P3 13:21 Hooking on the Mammoth (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power play +1% TOR
P3 12:11 Illegal check to head on the Maple Leafs (Oliver Ekman-Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play +2% UTA
P3 1:46 Tripping on the Mammoth (Dylan Guenther): 2 minutes on the power play +6% TOR

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 5:05 Daniil But scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 8% chance +16% UTA –
2 P2 19:00 Vincent Trocheck scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 10% chance +13% UTA –
3 P2 15:59 Mikhail Sergachev scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 9% chance +7% UTA –
4 P2 14:44 Auston Matthews scored on a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 13% chance +7% TOR –
5 P2 5:43 Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 46 feetShooting · 3% chance +7% UTA –
6 P2 0:40 MacKenzie Weegar scored on a snap shot from 31 feetShooting · 6% chance +6% UTA –
7 P3 8:59 Gavin McKenna scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 11% chance +11% TOR –
8 P3 0:46 John Tavares’s snap shot from 15 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance +7% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 53% · Mammoth 47%

Final margin
Mammoth by 1
Luck in goals
0.9 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 47% · Mammoth 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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