2026-27 regular season · October 17, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Senators at Flyers, Oct 17, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Flyers beat the Senators 3–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flyers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 38 points of win probability to the Flyers.
The biggest swing (P2, 1:27 left): Matvei Michkov scored on a snap shot from 14 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Flyers.
Final
 Ottawa Senators | 1 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Flyers | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Flyers lucky · −55 Senators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Senators win 5, Flyers win 5.
- 1 OTT 5 PHI 1
- 2 OTT 4 PHI 1
- 3 OTT 5 PHI 3
- 4 OTT 4 PHI 3
- 5 OTT 2 PHI 1
- 6 OTT 2 PHI 3
- 7 OTT 3 PHI 4
- 8 OTT 1 PHI 2
- 9 OTT 2 PHI 4
- 10 OTT 2 PHI 5
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Senators by 0.5, 58% to win. The Flyers won by 2, a result we gave 42%. The final margin was 2.5 goals from ours; 40% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Senators win | 58.1% |
| Flyers win | 41.9% |
| Middle 50%: Senators by 2 to Flyers by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Senators by 4 to Flyers by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Senators by 5 to Flyers by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Senators by 1 | 21.5% |
| Exactly Flyers by 1 | 19.0% |
| Exactly Senators by 3 | 14.1% |
| Exactly Senators by 2 | 11.6% |
| Exactly Flyers by 3 | 9.2% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 17, 6:42 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.2 replays ended
Senators win 55% of them, Flyers 45%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Senators by 3+ | 22.7% |
| Senators by 2 | 11.8% |
| Senators by 1 | 20.4% |
| Flyers by 1 | 21.5% |
| Flyers by 2 | 9.4% |
| Flyers by 3+ | 14.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Senators | 36 | 1 | 2.81 | −1.81 |
 Flyers | 38 | 2 | 2.26 | −0.26 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 19:09 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Senators (Tyler Kleven): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P1 8:40 | Tripping on the Senators (Thomas Chabot): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PHI |
| P1 5:19 | Holding on the Flyers (Trevor Zegras): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 3:07 | Interference on the Senators (Carter Yakemchuk): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% PHI |
| P3 5:18 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Flyers (Tyson Foerster): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
When it happened
Flyers’ chance of winning
As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P2 14:05 | Drake Batherson scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 10% chance | +18% OTT | – |
| 2 | P2 10:57 | Porter Martone scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 9% chance | +19% PHI | – |
| 3 | P2 3:07 | Interference on the Senators (Carter Yakemchuk): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% PHI | – |
| 4 | P2 2:04 | Tyson Foerster’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 29% chance | +7% OTT | – |
| 5 | P2 1:27 | Matvei Michkov scored on a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 16% chance | +20% PHI | – |
| 6 | P3 15:01 | Warren Foegele hit the left post with a snap shot from 5 feetShooting · 28% chance | +8% PHI | – |
| 7 | P3 5:18 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Flyers (Tyson Foerster): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% OTT | – |
| 8 | P3 4:27 | Drake Batherson’s backhand shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 9% chanceStephen Halliday’s snap shot from 11 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance | +13% PHI | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Senators 43% · Flyers 57%
- Final margin
- Flyers by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for the Flyers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Flyers by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Senators 55% · Flyers 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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