luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · October 13, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Blackhawks, Oct 13, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Blackhawks beat the Penguins 5–3, but the replays lean toward the Penguins: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 44 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

The biggest swing (P3, 4:18 left): Teuvo Teravainen scored on a wrist shot from 41 feet, worth 38 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Chicago Blackhawks 5

October 13, 2026 · United Center

Our prediction before puck drop: Penguins by 0.8

Luck index +67 Blackhawks very lucky · −67 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 7, Blackhawks win 3.

  1. 1 PIT 5 CHI 0
  2. 2 PIT 4 CHI 0
  3. 3 PIT 7 CHI 4
  4. 4 PIT 3 CHI 0
  5. 5 PIT 2 CHI 0
  6. 6 PIT 3 CHI 2
  7. 7 PIT 3 CHI 2
  8. 8 PIT 3 CHI 4
  9. 9 PIT 1 CHI 2
  10. 10 PIT 1 CHI 4

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Penguins by 0.8, 63% to win. The Blackhawks won by 2, a result we gave 37%. The final margin was 2.8 goals from ours; 25% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Penguins win63.1%
Blackhawks win36.9%
Middle 50%: Penguins by 3 to Blackhawks by 150%
Middle 90%: Penguins by 4 to Blackhawks by 390%
Middle 95%: Penguins by 5 to Blackhawks by 495%
Exactly Penguins by 121.9%
Exactly Blackhawks by 117.6%
Exactly Penguins by 315.8%
Exactly Penguins by 212.4%
Exactly Penguins by 48.2%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 13, 1:55 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Penguins win 67% of them, Blackhawks 33%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+34.9%
Penguins by 212.4%
Penguins by 119.5%
Blackhawks by 119.8%
Blackhawks by 26.2%
Blackhawks by 3+7.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Blackhawks: the final margin was Blackhawks by 2, without the luck Blackhawks by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins4533.52−0.52
Blackhawks2441.69+2.31

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 7:11 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Cole Smith): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 3:09 Interference on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P1 1:35 Hooking on the Blackhawks (Bowen Byram): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 17:52 Hooking on the Blackhawks (Patrick Kane): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P3 13:51 Slashing on the Blackhawks (Bowen Byram): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PIT
P3 10:06 Interference on the Penguins (Egor Chinakhov): 2 minutes on the power play +7% CHI

When it happened

Blackhawks’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blackhawks were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 19:32 Teuvo Teravainen scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 21% chance +12% CHI –
2 P1 13:03 Sidney Crosby scored on a wrist shot from 27 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% PIT –
3 P1 2:10 Roman Kantserov scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 17% chance +15% CHI –
4 P2 9:28 Roman Kantserov scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 19% chance +12% CHI –
5 P2 2:09 Nick Robertson scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 14% chance +13% PIT –
6 P3 10:43 Sidney Crosby scored on a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 28% chance +22% PIT –
7 P3 4:18 Teuvo Teravainen scored on a wrist shot from 41 feetShooting · 1% chance +38% CHI –
8 P3 1:07 Rickard Rakell’s wrist shot from 14 feet was savedShooting · 5% chanceBryan Rust’s backhand shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +9% CHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 43% · Blackhawks 57%

Final margin
Blackhawks by 2
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Blackhawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Blackhawks by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 67% · Blackhawks 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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