2026-27 regular season · October 17, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Oilers at Mammoth, Oct 17, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Oilers beat the Mammoth 6–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Oilers win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Oilers.
The biggest swing (P1, 19:20 left): Connor McDavid scored on a backhand shot from 4 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Oilers.
Final
 Edmonton Oilers | 6 |
|---|---|
 Utah Mammoth | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Oilers lucky · −55 Mammoth
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oilers win 4, Mammoth win 6.
- 1 EDM 5 UTA 2
- 2 EDM 2 UTA 0
- 3 EDM 4 UTA 3
- 4 EDM 2 UTA 1
- 5 EDM 4 UTA 5
- 6 EDM 0 UTA 1
- 7 EDM 3 UTA 4
- 8 EDM 3 UTA 5
- 9 EDM 2 UTA 5
- 10 EDM 3 UTA 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Mammoth by 0.3, 55% to win. The Oilers won by 4, a result we gave 45%. The final margin was 4.3 goals from ours; 5% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Oilers win | 45.5% |
| Mammoth win | 54.5% |
| Middle 50%: Oilers by 2 to Mammoth by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Oilers by 4 to Mammoth by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Oilers by 4 to Mammoth by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 1 | 21.6% |
| Exactly Oilers by 1 | 19.4% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 3 | 13.2% |
| Exactly Mammoth by 2 | 10.4% |
| Exactly Oilers by 3 | 10.1% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 17, 8:17 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Oilers win 45% of them, Mammoth 55%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oilers by 3+ | 14.4% |
| Oilers by 2 | 9.5% |
| Oilers by 1 | 20.9% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 22.8% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 11.0% |
| Mammoth by 3+ | 21.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oilers | 36 | 6 | 2.38 | +3.62 |
 Mammoth | 42 | 2 | 2.97 | −0.97 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 9:58 | Holding on the Oilers (Zach Hyman): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P1 6:47 | Interference on the Mammoth (Kailer Yamamoto): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P3 6:56 | Interference on the Oilers (Connor Murphy): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% UTA |
When it happened
Mammoth’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 19:20 | Connor McDavid scored on a backhand shot from 4 feetShooting · 11% chance | +14% EDM | – |
| 2 | P1 11:24 | Jack McBain missed the net with a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 26% chance | +4% EDM | – |
| 3 | P1 9:58 | Holding on the Oilers (Zach Hyman): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% UTA | – |
| 4 | P1 8:47 | Barrett Hayton’s snap shot from 24 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance | +3% EDM | – |
| 5 | P1 6:47 | Interference on the Mammoth (Kailer Yamamoto): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% EDM | – |
| 6 | P1 6:39 | Zach Hyman scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 13% chance | +13% EDM | – |
| 7 | P1 6:07 | Mathieu Joseph scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 19% chance | +8% EDM | – |
| 8 | P2 9:03 | Kasperi Kapanen scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 15% chance | +3% EDM | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oilers 59% · Mammoth 41%
- Final margin
- Oilers by 4
- Luck in goals
- 3.4 for the Oilers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oilers by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Oilers 45% · Mammoth 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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