2026-27 regular season · October 13, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Avalanche at Stars, Oct 13, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Avalanche beat the Stars 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Avalanche win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 11 points of win probability to the Avalanche.
The biggest swing (P2, 16:55 left): Martin Necas scored on a slap shot from 38 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Avalanche.
Final
 Colorado Avalanche | 3 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Stars | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Avalanche lucky · −52 Stars
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Avalanche win 5, Stars win 5.
- 1 COL 7 DAL 3
- 2 COL 5 DAL 2
- 3 COL 4 DAL 2
- 4 COL 2 DAL 1
- 5 COL 1 DAL 0
- 6 COL 2 DAL 3
- 7 COL 3 DAL 4
- 8 COL 3 DAL 5
- 9 COL 1 DAL 4
- 10 COL 1 DAL 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Avalanche by 0.1, 52% to win. The Avalanche won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.9 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Avalanche win | 52.2% |
| Stars win | 47.8% |
| Middle 50%: Avalanche by 2 to Stars by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Avalanche by 4 to Stars by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Avalanche by 5 to Stars by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 1 | 20.7% |
| Exactly Stars by 1 | 20.4% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 3 | 12.2% |
| Exactly Stars by 3 | 11.0% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 2 | 10.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 13, 1:55 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Avalanche win 48% of them, Stars 52%. The line is what actually happened: Avalanche by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Avalanche by 3+ | 18.5% |
| Avalanche by 2 | 9.1% |
| Avalanche by 1 | 20.5% |
| Stars by 1 | 21.3% |
| Stars by 2 | 11.0% |
| Stars by 3+ | 19.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Avalanche | 37 | 3 | 2.66 | +0.34 |
 Stars | 40 | 2 | 2.70 | −0.70 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 2:16 | Instigator on the Avalanche (Fedor Svechkov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P2 5:42 | Cross checking on the Stars (Kyle Capobianco): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% COL |
| P2 4:08 | Tripping on the Stars (Radek Faksa): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% COL |
| P3 15:10 | Holding on the Stars (Thomas Harley): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% COL |
When it happened
Stars’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 8:28 | Artturi Lehkonen scored on a backhand shot from 20 feetShooting · 9% chance | +16% COL | – |
| 2 | P1 0:54 | Tyler Seguin scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 5% chance | +18% DAL | – |
| 3 | P2 16:55 | Martin Necas scored on a slap shot from 38 feetShooting · 8% chance | +18% COL | – |
| 4 | P2 5:42 | Cross checking on the Stars (Kyle Capobianco): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% COL | – |
| 5 | P2 4:08 | Tripping on the Stars (Radek Faksa): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% COL | – |
| 6 | P2 3:46 | Martin Necas scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 13% chance | +14% COL | – |
| 7 | P3 16:43 | Roope Hintz scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 11% chance | +14% DAL | – |
| 8 | P3 15:10 | Holding on the Stars (Thomas Harley): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% COL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Avalanche 68% · Stars 32%
- Final margin
- Avalanche by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.2 for the Avalanche
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Avalanche by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Avalanche 48% · Stars 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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