2026-27 regular season · October 17, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Hurricanes at Jets, Oct 17, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Hurricanes beat the Jets 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Hurricanes win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 28 points of win probability to the Hurricanes.
The game turned on a luck play (P2, 3:10 left): Jesperi Kotkaniemi scored on a tip from 16 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Hurricanes. The biggest single swing (P3, 13:17 left): Nikolaj Ehlers scored on a slap shot from 36 feet.
Final
 Carolina Hurricanes | 3 |
|---|---|
 Winnipeg Jets | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 Hurricanes lucky · −50 Jets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hurricanes win 5, Jets win 5.
- 1 CAR 6 WPG 1
- 2 CAR 6 WPG 3
- 3 CAR 4 WPG 2
- 4 CAR 4 WPG 3
- 5 CAR 4 WPG 3
- 6 CAR 0 WPG 1
- 7 CAR 3 WPG 4
- 8 CAR 2 WPG 4
- 9 CAR 1 WPG 4
- 10 CAR 2 WPG 6
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Hurricanes by 0.4, 56% to win. The Hurricanes won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.6 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes win | 56.3% |
| Jets win | 43.7% |
| Middle 50%: Hurricanes by 2 to Jets by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Hurricanes by 4 to Jets by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Hurricanes by 5 to Jets by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 1 | 21.3% |
| Exactly Jets by 1 | 19.5% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 3 | 13.5% |
| Exactly Hurricanes by 2 | 11.3% |
| Exactly Jets by 3 | 9.8% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Sat, Oct 17, 2:47 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.8 replays ended
Hurricanes win 50% of them, Jets 50%. The line is what actually happened: Hurricanes by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 21.2% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 8.8% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 19.7% |
| Jets by 1 | 19.8% |
| Jets by 2 | 10.8% |
| Jets by 3+ | 19.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hurricanes | 52 | 3 | 3.23 | −0.23 |
 Jets | 38 | 2 | 3.24 | −1.24 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 3:08 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Sebastian Aho): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P2 13:27 | Cross checking on the Jets (Viggo Björck): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P3 15:11 | Tripping on the Jets (Dylan DeMelo): 2 minutes on the power play | +7% CAR |
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 0:27 | Nino Niederreiter’s deflected shot from 1 feet was savedShooting · 84% chance | +15% CAR | – |
| 2 | P2 15:37 | Mark Scheifele scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 14% chance | +17% WPG | – |
| 3 | P2 11:41 | Mark Jankowski scored on a wrist shot from 22 feetShooting · 16% chance | +17% CAR | – |
| 4 | P2 9:01 | Alex Iafallo scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 9% chance | +19% WPG | – |
| 5 | P2 3:10 | The game turned hereJesperi Kotkaniemi scored on a tip from 16 feetShooting · 7% chance | +22% CAR | – |
| 6 | P3 13:17 | Nikolaj Ehlers scored on a slap shot from 36 feetShooting · 13% chance | +26% CAR | – |
| 7 | P3 6:31 | Gabriel Vilardi missed the net with a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 22% chance | +8% CAR | – |
| 8 | P3 0:42 | Gabriel Vilardi’s wrist shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +8% CAR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hurricanes 50% · Jets 50%
- Final margin
- Hurricanes by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for the Hurricanes
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hurricanes by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Hurricanes 50% · Jets 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 3, 2026-27
- Penguins at Blackhawks Oct 13, 2026 · CHI 5–3 · replay 33% for the winner
- Devils at Capitals Oct 17, 2026 · WSH 4–2 · replay 37% for the winner
- Kraken at Flyers Oct 13, 2026 · SEA 3–2 SO · replay 39% for the winner
- Stars at Avalanche Oct 14, 2026 · DAL 3–2 SO · replay 40% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Flames Oct 18, 2026 · CGY 3–2 · replay 40% for the winner
- Islanders at Maple Leafs Oct 17, 2026 · NYI 4–1 · replay 40% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Predators Oct 13, 2026 · VGK 5–2 · replay 41% for the winner
- Rangers at Blue Jackets Oct 17, 2026 · CBJ 1–0 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Jets at Blackhawks Oct 15, 2026 · CHI 4–3 OT · replay 44% for the winner
- Oilers at Mammoth Oct 17, 2026 · EDM 6–2 · replay 45% for the winner
- Senators at Devils Oct 12, 2026 · OTT 4–1 · replay 45% for the winner
- Senators at Flyers Oct 17, 2026 · PHI 3–1 · replay 45% for the winner