2026-27 regular season · October 15, 2026 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Jets at Blackhawks, Oct 15, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Blackhawks beat the Jets 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blackhawks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 49 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.
The biggest swing (OT): the Blackhawks won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.
Final (OT)
 Winnipeg Jets | 3 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Blackhawks | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Blackhawks lucky · −56 Jets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 6, Blackhawks win 4.
- 1 WPG 5 CHI 0
- 2 WPG 6 CHI 3
- 3 WPG 5 CHI 2
- 4 WPG 4 CHI 2
- 5 WPG 5 CHI 4
- 6 WPG 3 CHI 2
- 7 WPG 1 CHI 2
- 8 WPG 2 CHI 3
- 9 WPG 1 CHI 3
- 10 WPG 4 CHI 7
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Jets by 0.5, 58% to win. The Blackhawks won by 1, a result we gave 42%. The final margin was 1.5 goals from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jets win | 58.1% |
| Blackhawks win | 41.9% |
| Middle 50%: Jets by 2 to Blackhawks by 1 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Jets by 4 to Blackhawks by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Jets by 5 to Blackhawks by 4 | 95% |
| Exactly Jets by 1 | 21.5% |
| Exactly Blackhawks by 1 | 19.0% |
| Exactly Jets by 3 | 14.1% |
| Exactly Jets by 2 | 11.6% |
| Exactly Blackhawks by 3 | 9.2% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 15, 11:30 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Jets win 56% of them, Blackhawks 44%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 3+ | 25.8% |
| Jets by 2 | 11.0% |
| Jets by 1 | 19.7% |
| Blackhawks by 1 | 20.0% |
| Blackhawks by 2 | 8.6% |
| Blackhawks by 3+ | 15.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jets | 48 | 3 | 3.44 | −0.44 |
 Blackhawks | 37 | 3 | 2.66 | +0.34 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:44 | Roughing on the Jets (Adam Lowry): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P1 18:27 | Hooking on the Blackhawks (Teuvo Teravainen): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
| P1 13:47 | High sticking on the Jets (Jack St. Ivany): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P1 13:02 | Tripping on the Jets (Mario Ferraro): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CHI |
| P2 16:39 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Ryan Greene): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% WPG |
| P2 0:17 | Hooking on the Jets (Nino Niederreiter): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CHI |
| P3 13:03 | Hooking on the Blackhawks (Ryan Greene): 2 minutes on the power play | +7% WPG |
When it happened
Blackhawks’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 11:49 | Connor Bedard scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 9% chance | +15% CHI | – |
| 2 | P1 4:50 | Frank Nazar scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 6% chance | +13% CHI | – |
| 3 | P1 3:03 | Neal Pionk scored on a slap shot from 55 feetShooting · 2% chance | +14% WPG | – |
| 4 | P1 2:49 | Ryan Donato scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 7% chance | +13% CHI | – |
| 5 | P2 15:16 | Kyle Connor scored on a wrist shot from 20 feetShooting · 15% chance | +12% WPG | – |
| 6 | P3 14:21 | Alex Iafallo scored on a tip from 12 feetShooting · 5% chance | +27% WPG | – |
| 7 | P3 13:03 | Hooking on the Blackhawks (Ryan Greene): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +7% WPG | – |
| 8 | OT | The Blackhawks won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +49% CHI | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 65% · Blackhawks 35%
- Final margin
- Blackhawks by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for the Blackhawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 56% · Blackhawks 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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