2026-27 regular season · October 13, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Wild at Jets, Oct 13, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Wild 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jets win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 21 points of win probability to the Jets.
The biggest swing (P2, 3:24 left): Cole Perfetti scored on a snap shot from 23 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 Minnesota Wild | 2 |
|---|---|
 Winnipeg Jets | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Jets lucky · −45 Wild
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wild win 4, Jets win 6.
- 1 MIN 3 WPG 0
- 2 MIN 4 WPG 2
- 3 MIN 4 WPG 3
- 4 MIN 3 WPG 2
- 5 MIN 2 WPG 3
- 6 MIN 2 WPG 3
- 7 MIN 1 WPG 3
- 8 MIN 1 WPG 3
- 9 MIN 1 WPG 4
- 10 MIN 4 WPG 9
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Wild by 0.1, 51% to win. The Jets won by 3, a result we gave 49%. The final margin was 3.0 goals from ours; 16% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Wild win | 50.8% |
| Jets win | 49.2% |
| Middle 50%: Wild by 2 to Jets by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Wild by 4 to Jets by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Wild by 5 to Jets by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Jets by 1 | 20.7% |
| Exactly Wild by 1 | 20.5% |
| Exactly Wild by 3 | 11.8% |
| Exactly Jets by 3 | 11.4% |
| Exactly Wild by 2 | 10.4% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Oct 13, 1:55 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Wild win 45% of them, Jets 55%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wild by 3+ | 15.0% |
| Wild by 2 | 9.2% |
| Wild by 1 | 20.3% |
| Jets by 1 | 22.2% |
| Jets by 2 | 10.6% |
| Jets by 3+ | 22.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wild | 39 | 2 | 2.52 | −0.52 |
 Jets | 39 | 5 | 2.71 | +2.29 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:23 | Slashing on the Jets (Nino Niederreiter): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MIN |
| P2 14:36 | Hooking on the Jets (Cole Perfetti): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% MIN |
| P2 3:55 | Hooking on the Wild (Bobby Brink): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% WPG |
| P2 2:32 | Holding on the Wild (Daemon Hunt): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WPG |
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:10 | Cole Perfetti scored on a tip from 22 feetShooting · 5% chance | +15% WPG | – |
| 2 | P1 11:13 | Kirill Kaprizov scored on a bat shot from 5 feetShooting · 19% chance | +13% MIN | – |
| 3 | P1 9:46 | Joel Eriksson Ek’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 28% chance | +5% WPG | – |
| 4 | P1 2:06 | Mark Scheifele scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 16% chance | +15% WPG | – |
| 5 | P1 1:22 | Kirill Kaprizov scored on a tip from 17 feetShooting · 9% chance | +17% MIN | – |
| 6 | P2 3:55 | Hooking on the Wild (Bobby Brink): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% WPG | – |
| 7 | P2 3:24 | Cole Perfetti scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 16% chance | +19% WPG | – |
| 8 | P3 15:54 | Kyle Connor scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance | +13% WPG | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wild 28% · Jets 72%
- Final margin
- Jets by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Wild 45% · Jets 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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