2026-27 regular season · October 15, 2026 · SO
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Sharks at Predators, Oct 15, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Sharks beat the Predators 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sharks win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Sharks.
The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Sharks won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Sharks.
Final (SO)
 San Jose Sharks | 3 |
|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +47 Sharks lucky · −47 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sharks win 5, Predators win 5.
- 1 SJS 5 NSH 1
- 2 SJS 5 NSH 2
- 3 SJS 4 NSH 2
- 4 SJS 1 NSH 0
- 5 SJS 1 NSH 0
- 6 SJS 0 NSH 1
- 7 SJS 4 NSH 5
- 8 SJS 2 NSH 4
- 9 SJS 2 NSH 5
- 10 SJS 1 NSH 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Predators by 0.4, 56% to win. The Sharks won by 1, a result we gave 44%. The final margin was 1.4 goals from ours; 59% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sharks win | 43.6% |
| Predators win | 56.4% |
| Middle 50%: Sharks by 1 to Predators by 2 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Sharks by 4 to Predators by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Sharks by 4 to Predators by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Predators by 1 | 21.9% |
| Exactly Sharks by 1 | 19.0% |
| Exactly Predators by 3 | 13.8% |
| Exactly Predators by 2 | 10.7% |
| Exactly Sharks by 3 | 9.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Thu, Oct 15, 11:30 am ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sharks win 53% of them, Predators 47%. The line is what actually happened: Sharks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sharks by 3+ | 20.0% |
| Sharks by 2 | 10.7% |
| Sharks by 1 | 22.0% |
| Predators by 1 | 22.2% |
| Predators by 2 | 9.6% |
| Predators by 3+ | 15.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sharks | 44 | 2 | 2.82 | −0.82 |
 Predators | 53 | 2 | 3.23 | −1.23 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 7:54 | Hooking on the Predators (Nicolas Hague): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P1 5:08 | High sticking double minor on the Sharks (Zack Ostapchuk): 4 minutes on the power play | +8% NSH |
| P2 13:14 | Interference on the Sharks (Igor Chernyshov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 10:25 | Hooking on the Predators (Reid Schaefer): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% SJS |
| P2 1:20 | High sticking on the Predators (Reid Schaefer): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% SJS |
| P3 11:57 | Tripping on the Sharks (Sam Dickinson): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% NSH |
When it happened
Predators’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:30 | Mason Marchment scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 14% chance | +14% SJS | – |
| 2 | P1 5:08 | Matthew Wood’s backhand shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 13% chanceHigh sticking double minor on the Sharks (Zack Ostapchuk): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% NSH | – |
| 3 | P2 9:33 | Ivar Stenberg missed the net with a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 30% chance | +5% NSH | – |
| 4 | P3 15:32 | Will Smith scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 7% chance | +15% SJS | – |
| 5 | P3 10:55 | Ryan O'Reilly scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 15% chance | +12% NSH | – |
| 6 | P3 0:08 | Matthew Wood’s tip from 7 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance | +7% SJS | – |
| 7 | P3 0:01 | Steven Stamkos scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance | +46% NSH | – |
| 8 | SO | The game turned hereThe Sharks won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +49% SJS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sharks 53% · Predators 47%
- Final margin
- Sharks by 1
- Luck in goals
- 0.8 for the Sharks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Sharks by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Sharks 53% · Predators 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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