2026-27 regular season · October 14, 2026 · SO
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Stars at Avalanche, Oct 14, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Stars beat the Avalanche 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Avalanche: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Stars.
The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Stars won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Stars.
Final (SO)
 Dallas Stars | 3 |
|---|---|
 Colorado Avalanche | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +60 Stars very lucky · −60 Avalanche
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stars win 4, Avalanche win 6.
- 1 DAL 5 COL 2
- 2 DAL 3 COL 1
- 3 DAL 4 COL 3
- 4 DAL 3 COL 2
- 5 DAL 1 COL 2
- 6 DAL 2 COL 3
- 7 DAL 2 COL 3
- 8 DAL 0 COL 2
- 9 DAL 2 COL 5
- 10 DAL 0 COL 4
Our prediction before puck drop
We had the Avalanche by 0.6, 60% to win. The Stars won by 1, a result we gave 40%. The final margin was 1.6 goals from ours; 48% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Stars win | 40.4% |
| Avalanche win | 59.6% |
| Middle 50%: Stars by 1 to Avalanche by 3 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Stars by 4 to Avalanche by 4 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Stars by 4 to Avalanche by 5 | 95% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 1 | 22.2% |
| Exactly Stars by 1 | 18.2% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 3 | 14.8% |
| Exactly Avalanche by 2 | 11.2% |
| Exactly Stars by 3 | 8.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Wed, Oct 14, 2:51 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Stars win 40% of them, Avalanche 60%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stars by 3+ | 8.6% |
| Stars by 2 | 7.5% |
| Stars by 1 | 23.6% |
| Avalanche by 1 | 25.6% |
| Avalanche by 2 | 12.6% |
| Avalanche by 3+ | 22.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stars | 30 | 2 | 1.58 | +0.42 |
 Avalanche | 40 | 2 | 2.23 | −0.23 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:05 | A Avalanche goal came off the board on review (off side) | +16% DAL |
| P1 17:49 | Tripping on the Avalanche (Brent Burns): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P1 12:36 | Roughing removing opponents helmet on the Stars (Jamie Benn): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% COL |
| P1 8:52 | Roughing on the Avalanche (Brett Kulak): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DAL |
| P1 5:50 | Tripping on the Stars (Miro Heiskanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% COL |
| P1 1:44 | Interference on the Stars (Mikko Rantanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% COL |
| P3 19:39 | Tripping on the Stars (Mikko Rantanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% COL |
When it happened
Avalanche’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:05 | A Avalanche goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals | +16% DAL | – |
| 2 | P2 15:05 | Gabriel Landeskog scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 9% chance | +18% COL | – |
| 3 | P2 4:57 | Miro Heiskanen scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 5% chance | +22% DAL | – |
| 4 | P3 19:39 | Tripping on the Stars (Mikko Rantanen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +6% COL | – |
| 5 | P3 18:40 | Arttu Hyry scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 13% chance | +23% DAL | – |
| 6 | P3 18:04 | Gabriel Landeskog’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 22% chance | +6% DAL | – |
| 7 | P3 11:39 | Brock Nelson scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 13% chance | +27% COL | – |
| 8 | SO | The game turned hereThe Stars won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips | +49% DAL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stars 38% · Avalanche 62%
- Final margin
- Stars by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.5 for the Stars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Avalanche by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Stars 40% · Avalanche 60% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 3, 2026-27
- Penguins at Blackhawks Oct 13, 2026 · CHI 5–3 · replay 33% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Predators Oct 13, 2026 · VGK 5–2 · replay 41% for the winner
- Jets at Blackhawks Oct 15, 2026 · CHI 4–3 OT · replay 44% for the winner
- Oilers at Mammoth Oct 17, 2026 · EDM 6–2 · replay 45% for the winner
- Avalanche at Stars Oct 13, 2026 · COL 3–2 · replay 48% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Jets Oct 17, 2026 · CAR 3–2 · replay 50% for the winner
- Sharks at Predators Oct 15, 2026 · SJS 3–2 SO · replay 53% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Mammoth Oct 13, 2026 · UTA 5–4 · replay 53% for the winner
- Penguins at Avalanche Oct 16, 2026 · COL 5–2 · replay 55% for the winner
- Wild at Jets Oct 13, 2026 · WPG 5–2 · replay 55% for the winner
- Golden Knights at Wild Oct 12, 2026 · MIN 4–2 · replay 56% for the winner
- Stars at Blackhawks Oct 17, 2026 · DAL 4–0 · replay 59% for the winner