luckadjusted
NHL Week 6 · 2026-27

2026-27 regular season · November 3, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Mammoth at Maple Leafs, Nov 3, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Maple Leafs 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

The game turned on a luck play (P2, 6:18 left): Andrew Peeke scored on a wrist shot from 48 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Mammoth. The biggest single swing (P3, 10:55 left): Jack Roslovic scored on a backhand shot from 9 feet.

Final

Utah Mammoth 3
Toronto Maple Leafs 2

November 3, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena

Our prediction before puck drop: Mammoth by 0.3

Luck index +21 Mammoth about even · −21 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mammoth win 8, Maple Leafs win 2.

  1. 1 UTA 10 TOR 3
  2. 2 UTA 5 TOR 0
  3. 3 UTA 5 TOR 1
  4. 4 UTA 5 TOR 2
  5. 5 UTA 3 TOR 0
  6. 6 UTA 4 TOR 2
  7. 7 UTA 4 TOR 2
  8. 8 UTA 2 TOR 1
  9. 9 UTA 3 TOR 4
  10. 10 UTA 1 TOR 3

Our prediction before puck drop

We had the Mammoth by 0.3, 55% to win. The Mammoth won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 0.7 goals from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Mammoth win55.3%
Maple Leafs win44.7%
Middle 50%: Mammoth by 2 to Maple Leafs by 150%
Middle 90%: Mammoth by 4 to Maple Leafs by 490%
Middle 95%: Mammoth by 5 to Maple Leafs by 495%
Exactly Mammoth by 121.2%
Exactly Maple Leafs by 119.7%
Exactly Mammoth by 313.2%
Exactly Mammoth by 211.2%
Exactly Maple Leafs by 310.0%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: a hot goalie, a post or a deflection moves a hockey score more than anything known before the game. Made Tue, Nov 3, 1:10 pm ET and frozen at puck drop. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Mammoth win 79% of them, Maple Leafs 21%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mammoth by 3+53.7%
Mammoth by 210.7%
Mammoth by 114.1%
Maple Leafs by 114.9%
Maple Leafs by 23.0%
Maple Leafs by 3+3.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Mammoth by 1, without the luck Mammoth by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Mammoth5534.14−1.14
Maple Leafs4322.05−0.05

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:13 Hooking on the Mammoth (Liam O'Brien): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 7:50 Hooking on the Mammoth (Nick Schmaltz): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P1 1:02 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Jack Roslovic): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 2:15 Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Nick Paul): 2 minutes on the power play +5% UTA
P3 8:18 Cross checking on the Maple Leafs (Darren Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power play +8% UTA

When it happened

Maple Leafs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Maple Leafs were ahead in it, below while the Mammoth were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:36 Liam O'Brien deflected, 2 ft: above crossbar (44% chance)Shooting +7% TOR –
2 P1 0:13 Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 45 feetShooting · 6% chance +18% UTA –
3 P2 9:40 Jack Roslovic scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 5% chance +21% TOR –
4 P2 6:18 The game turned hereAndrew Peeke scored on a wrist shot from 48 feetShooting · 2% chance +22% UTA –
5 P3 10:55 Jack Roslovic scored on a backhand shot from 9 feetShooting · 12% chance +28% TOR –
6 P3 8:18 Cross checking on the Maple Leafs (Darren Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% UTA –
7 P3 6:48 Nick Schmaltz scored on a backhand shot from 3 feetShooting · 42% chance +21% UTA –
8 P3 0:25 William Nylander’s wrist shot from 24 feet was savedShooting · 14% chance +7% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mammoth 81% · Maple Leafs 19%

Final margin
Mammoth by 1
Luck in goals
0.8 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Mammoth 79% · Maple Leafs 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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