2025-26 season · final

Toronto Maple Leafs, 2025-26: game by game

The Maple Leafs went 32–36–14 (78 points) in 2025-26; replayed with only the luck redrawn, their play was worth 71.4 points. Luck added 6.6: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-goal games they went 14–18; in overtime 8–10, in the shootout 1–4.

Every game

How often the Maple Leafs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Date	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Oct 8, 2025	vs Canadiens	W 5–2	38%	+62
Oct 11, 2025	@ Red Wings	L 3–6	40%	−40
Oct 13, 2025	vs Red Wings	L 2–3	62%	−62
Oct 14, 2025	vs Predators	W 7–4	62%	+38
Oct 16, 2025	vs Rangers	W 2–1	43%	+57	OT
Oct 18, 2025	vs Kraken	L 3–4	62%	−62	OT
Oct 21, 2025	vs Devils	L 2–5	42%	−42
Oct 24, 2025	@ Sabres	L 3–5	49%	−49
Oct 25, 2025	vs Sabres	W 4–3	48%	+52	OT
Oct 28, 2025	vs Flames	W 4–3	54%	+46
Oct 29, 2025	@ Blue Jackets	L 3–6	62%	−62
Nov 1, 2025	@ Flyers	W 5–2	52%	+48
Nov 3, 2025	vs Penguins	W 4–3	36%	+64
Nov 5, 2025	vs Mammoth	W 5–3	59%	+41
Nov 8, 2025	vs Bruins	L 3–5	45%	−45
Nov 9, 2025	vs Hurricanes	L 4–5	32%	−32
Nov 11, 2025	@ Bruins	L 3–5	40%	−40
Nov 13, 2025	vs Kings	L 3–4	24%	−24	OT
Nov 15, 2025	@ Blackhawks	L 2–3	49%	−49
Nov 18, 2025	vs Blues	W 3–2	41%	+59	OT
Nov 20, 2025	vs Blue Jackets	L 2–3	52%	−52	OT
Nov 22, 2025	@ Canadiens	L 2–5	20%	−20
Nov 26, 2025	@ Blue Jackets	W 2–1	34%	+66	OT
Nov 28, 2025	@ Capitals	L 2–4	42%	−42
Nov 29, 2025	@ Penguins	W 7–2	43%	+57
Dec 2, 2025	@ Panthers	W 4–1	73%	+27
Dec 4, 2025	@ Hurricanes	W 5–1	42%	+58
Dec 6, 2025	vs Canadiens	L 1–2	30%	−30	SO
Dec 8, 2025	vs Lightning	W 2–0	55%	+45
Dec 11, 2025	vs Sharks	L 2–3	48%	−48	OT
Dec 13, 2025	vs Oilers	L 3–6	51%	−51
Dec 16, 2025	vs Blackhawks	W 3–2	59%	+41
Dec 18, 2025	@ Capitals	L 0–4	33%	−33
Dec 20, 2025	@ Predators	L 3–5	43%	−43
Dec 21, 2025	@ Stars	L 1–5	56%	−56
Dec 23, 2025	vs Penguins	W 6–3	66%	+34
Dec 27, 2025	vs Senators	W 7–5	54%	+46
Dec 28, 2025	@ Red Wings	L 2–3	43%	−43	OT
Dec 30, 2025	vs Devils	W 4–0	51%	+49
Jan 1, 2026	vs Jets	W 6–5	47%	+53
Jan 3, 2026	@ Islanders	L 3–4	55%	−55	OT
Jan 6, 2026	vs Panthers	W 4–1	60%	+40
Jan 8, 2026	@ Flyers	W 2–1	43%	+57	OT
Jan 10, 2026	vs Canucks	W 5–0	45%	+55
Jan 12, 2026	@ Avalanche	W 4–3	34%	+66	OT
Jan 13, 2026	@ Mammoth	L 1–6	21%	−21
Jan 15, 2026	@ Golden Knights	L 5–6	50%	−50	OT
Jan 17, 2026	@ Jets	W 4–3	33%	+67	OT
Jan 19, 2026	vs Wild	L 3–6	37%	−37
Jan 21, 2026	vs Red Wings	L 1–2	70%	−70	OT
Jan 23, 2026	vs Golden Knights	L 3–6	42%	−42
Jan 25, 2026	vs Avalanche	L 1–4	49%	−49
Jan 27, 2026	vs Sabres	L 4–7	45%	−45
Jan 29, 2026	@ Kraken	L 2–5	72%	−72
Jan 31, 2026	@ Canucks	W 3–2	73%	+27	SO
Feb 2, 2026	@ Flames	W 4–2	47%	+53
Feb 3, 2026	@ Oilers	W 5–2	47%	+53
Feb 25, 2026	@ Lightning	L 2–4	28%	−28
Feb 26, 2026	@ Panthers	L 1–5	38%	−38
Feb 28, 2026	vs Senators	L 2–5	39%	−39
Mar 2, 2026	vs Flyers	L 2–3	53%	−53	SO
Mar 4, 2026	@ Devils	L 3–4	32%	−32	SO
Mar 5, 2026	@ Rangers	L 2–6	47%	−47
Mar 7, 2026	vs Lightning	L 2–5	45%	−45
Mar 10, 2026	@ Canadiens	L 1–3	20%	−20
Mar 12, 2026	vs Ducks	W 6–4	45%	+55
Mar 14, 2026	@ Sabres	L 2–3	24%	−24	SO
Mar 15, 2026	@ Wild	W 4–2	33%	+67
Mar 17, 2026	vs Islanders	L 1–3	33%	−33
Mar 20, 2026	vs Hurricanes	L 3–4	30%	−30	OT
Mar 21, 2026	@ Senators	L 2–5	22%	−22
Mar 24, 2026	@ Bruins	W 4–2	66%	+34
Mar 25, 2026	vs Rangers	W 4–3	29%	+71
Mar 28, 2026	@ Blues	L 1–5	28%	−28
Mar 30, 2026	@ Ducks	W 5–4	49%	+51	OT
Apr 2, 2026	@ Sharks	L 1–4	45%	−45
Apr 4, 2026	@ Kings	L 6–7	24%	−24	OT
Apr 8, 2026	vs Capitals	L 0–4	48%	−48
Apr 9, 2026	@ Islanders	L 3–5	10%	−10
Apr 11, 2026	vs Panthers	L 2–6	56%	−56
Apr 13, 2026	vs Stars	L 5–6	37%	−37
Apr 15, 2026	@ Senators	L 1–3	28%	−28

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

10/08 +62 vs MTL

10/11 −40 @ DET

10/13 −62 vs DET

10/14 +38 vs NSH

10/16 +57 vs NYR

10/18 −62 vs SEA

10/21 −42 vs NJD

10/24 −49 @ BUF

10/25 +52 vs BUF

10/28 +46 vs CGY

10/29 −62 @ CBJ

11/01 +48 @ PHI

11/03 +64 vs PIT

11/05 +41 vs UTA

11/08 −45 vs BOS

11/09 −32 vs CAR

11/11 −40 @ BOS

11/13 −24 vs LAK

11/15 −49 @ CHI

11/18 +59 vs STL

11/20 −52 vs CBJ

11/22 −20 @ MTL

11/26 +66 @ CBJ

11/28 −42 @ WSH

11/29 +57 @ PIT

12/02 +27 @ FLA

12/04 +58 @ CAR

12/06 −30 vs MTL

12/08 +45 vs TBL

12/11 −48 vs SJS

12/13 −51 vs EDM

12/16 +41 vs CHI

12/18 −33 @ WSH

12/20 −43 @ NSH

12/21 −56 @ DAL

12/23 +34 vs PIT

12/27 +46 vs OTT

12/28 −43 @ DET

12/30 +49 vs NJD

01/01 +53 vs WPG

01/03 −55 @ NYI

01/06 +40 vs FLA

01/08 +57 @ PHI

01/10 +55 vs VAN

01/12 +66 @ COL

01/13 −21 @ UTA

01/15 −50 @ VGK

01/17 +67 @ WPG

01/19 −37 vs MIN

01/21 −70 vs DET

01/23 −42 vs VGK

01/25 −49 vs COL

01/27 −45 vs BUF

01/29 −72 @ SEA

01/31 +27 @ VAN

02/02 +53 @ CGY

02/03 +53 @ EDM

02/25 −28 @ TBL

02/26 −38 @ FLA

02/28 −39 vs OTT

03/02 −53 vs PHI

03/04 −32 @ NJD

03/05 −47 @ NYR

03/07 −45 vs TBL

03/10 −20 @ MTL

03/12 +55 vs ANA

03/14 −24 @ BUF

03/15 +67 @ MIN

03/17 −33 vs NYI

03/20 −30 vs CAR

03/21 −22 @ OTT

03/24 +34 @ BOS

03/25 +71 vs NYR

03/28 −28 @ STL

03/30 +51 @ ANA

04/02 −45 @ SJS

04/04 −24 @ LAK

04/08 −48 vs WSH

04/09 −10 @ NYI

04/11 −56 vs FLA

04/13 −37 vs DAL

04/15 −28 @ OTT

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in goals of margin at the fitted luck shares; an overtime or shootout result counts two. Positive: in the Maple Leafs’ favor.

Kind	Goals
Shooting	+10.8
Overtime	−2.0
Shootout	−3.0
Goaltending	−7.5